星期日, 七月 31, 2005

CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers - Yahoo! News

CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers - Yahoo! News
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CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
Sat Jul 30,11:07 PM ET



U.S. shoppers should get a price break on shirts and pants made in Central America. American farmers and manufacturers are hoping to gain new sales in the region. U.S. sugar growers, however, are fretting about increased competition now that Congress has passed and sent to the president a trade deal that eliminates barriers between the United States and Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.

Most analysts predict that the political fallout from the Central American Free Trade Agreement, which President Bush plans to sign on Tuesday, will outweigh the economic impact. They note that the six CAFTA countries have economies that are very small in comparison with the U.S. economy.

The debate over the pact was the most contentious free-trade fight in Congress in more than a decade.

The U.S. International Trade Commission, which did the most extensive study of the agreement, found that it will have a tiny but positive impact on the U.S. economy — a gain of 0.01 percent in output in an $11 trillion economy.

Overall price breaks for U.S. consumers will be small because 80 percent of goods from the six nations already come into the U.S. duty-free under federal programs to help poor nations.

Yet the effect on some industries will be significant.

The commission estimated that after full phase-in of the agreement, U.S. exports of textiles and clothing to the six countries will increase by $802.8 million. Machinery exports will rise by $400.6 million. Auto shipments will go up by $180.4 million. Sales of wheat and other grains will climb by $157.3 million.

Total U.S. exports to the CAFTA nations will rise by $2.7 billion, or 14.8 percent, according to the study.

The value of goods sent from those countries to the U.S. will jump by $3.1 billion for textile and clothing shipments, while shipments of processed sugar will increase by $113.2 million.

The total increase in imports will come to $2.8 billion at the time of full phase-in. The study estimated that imports in some categories will decline in future years.

"The biggest winners from the passage of CAFTA will be the people of Central America. This will solidify the tremendous gains they have made in economic and political reforms," said Dan Griswold, head of trade studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington.

In addition to promoting the pact on foreign policy grounds, the Bush administration and Republican leaders participated in a frenzy of dealmaking to win votes.

One deal meant passage of House legislation to make it easier to impose penalty tariffs on China in trade disputes.

Also, there were agreements sought by textile state lawmakers to ensure that U.S. plants now shipping yarn and fabric to Latin America, where it is made into finished clothing, will not lose out to competition from China and other low-cost suppliers.

Despite all the horse-trading, the legislation passed by only two votes, 217-215, on Thursday night after House leaders held the normal 15-minute vote open for an hour to allow more arm-twisting.

"Passing CAFTA required last-minute procedural stunts even after weeks of the president's personal attention ... months of GOP leadership threats and goodies and an army of corporate lobbyists," said Lori Wallach, head of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, a CAFTA opponent.

The administration did avert what would have been a damaging political loss for the president.

The legislation victory allowed the administration to push ahead with its agenda of liberalizing trade, including the greater goal of agreement in the World Trade Organization among 148 nations on a global trade deal.

Organized labor is searching for primary opponents to make political losers out of the 15 Democrats who defied warnings from their leadership to vote for the deal.

Some trade experts say the tight vote might convince Republicans that they need to make a more concerted effort to address Democrats' concerns about protecting U.S. workers from unfair competition from low-wage countries.

"The fact that CAFTA won but this method might not be workable in the future might force Republicans to broaden the base and change their methods," said I.M. Destler, a professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland.

___

On the Net:

U.S. International Trade Commission CAFTA report: http://www.usitc.gov/WAIS/pub3717.PDF



Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.


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星期三, 七月 27, 2005

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document
Copyright 2005 The Financial Times Limited
Financial Times (London, England)

July 27, 2005 Wednesday

SECTION: FT REPORT - INDIAN BANKING & FINANCE; Pg. 22

LENGTH: 1127 words

HEADLINE: Reform of banks is a priority There has been liberalisation but much remains to be done, writes Jo Johnson

BYLINE: By JO JOHNSON

DATELINE: NEW DELHI

BODY:


At recent celebrations marking the 200th anniversary of the State Bank of India, the country's largest bank, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh could not resist the opportunity to boast about the country's banking system. "If there is one aspect in which we can confidently assert that India is ahead of China, that is in the robustness and soundness of our banking system," he said.

The banking system may not be suffering China's bad loans problem, but few economists believe its performance is a cause for celebration. There is ample evidence to show that, despite reforms launched in 1991, an inefficient financial sector remains a significant obstacle to government hopes of achieving the 8 per cent rate of economic growth it believes can lift hundreds of millions out of poverty.

India has managed to achieve an impressive rate of savings, with the World Bank estimating a share of financial assets in GDP of 173 per cent, compared with 104 per cent in Mexico, 112 per cent in Indonesia and 157 per cent in Brazil*. But this is only patchily invested in the real economy because of government funding requirements. Government inability to manage its finances is at the heart of the banking system's weakness as a financial intermediary. High deficit financing requirements - state and central budget deficits combined are 10 per cent of GDP - crowd out credit to the private sector. More than 40 per cent of the banking system's resources are invested in government securities.

"The government is absorbing such a large part of bank deposits for funding its revenue expenses and subsidies rather than long-term investments - that there's not enough left on the table for banks to explore lending opportunities beyond the large corporates," says Chetan Ahya, an economist at JM Morgan Stanley. "That's the whole problem with economic growth in India. It's skewed towards the people at the higher end."

Economists are alarmed that banks hold far more in government securities than required by the statutory liquidity ratio. This has been lowered from a peak of 38.5 per cent of net demand and time liabilities in February 1992 to 25 per cent.

Large segments of the economy remain excluded from access to formal finance. The ratio of private credit to GDP remains low at less than 40 per cent, compared with more than 100 per cent for countries such as China, Malaysia and South Korea. Moneylenders have a tight grip over the 70 per cent of India's rural poor with no bank account.

"There's something going wrong here," says Priya Basu, lead sector specialist at the World Bank. "There's pressure on the banks to invest much more in government securities than the statutory liquidity ratio requires. Given that the banks are then obliged to lend 40 per cent of net deposits to priority sectors, there's scarcely a quarter left for bank managers to lend as they see fit."

Poor contract enforcement, lack of credit information and weak bankruptcy laws accentuate the innate risk aversion of public sector bank managers.

For much of India's post-war history, central planners used the banking network to channel savings towards political priorities. Many banks were nationalised; credit was directed to sectors on the basis of quantitative targets and subsidised interest rates; and rural networks were built in accordance with social objectives without regard for profitability.

Over the past decade and a half, that has started to change. Interest rates have been largely liberalised, banks' required holdings of government debt reduced and obligations to lend to priority areas such as agriculture and small-scale businesses relaxed. These reforms encouraged deposit growth, the development of a credit culture and entry of private and foreign forces.

The feat of combining liberalisation and stability, overseen by the Reserve Bank of India, should not be underestimated. The RBI's conservative approach to reform was vindicated during the east Asian crises of the late 1990s. The contagious panic that spread across Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea left India's largely state-controlled financial sector unscathed.

"India's banking system appears to be sheltered from a crisis because (the country's) exchange rate regime is flexible, foreign exchange reserves are high, the capital account is not yet fully convertible and banks and their customers have limited, albeit growing, foreign exchange exposure," the World Bank sector specialist argues in a recently published essay.

Despite the success of new privately-owned Indian banks, such as ICICI and HFDC Bank, and the efforts of foreign banks such as Citibank, Standard Chartered and HSBC to make inroads, the country's financial landscape remains dominated by lumbering public sector institutions whose fragility and inability to liberalise has slowed reform.

The Reserve Bank of India's concern over the systemic risks involved in exposing underperforming public banks to the full blast of competition is the principal cause of the country's slow-motion liberalisation. In February, the RBI released an ultra-cautious roadmap for the sector, putting a brake on foreign takeover of banks until 2009.

"If I had to sum it up in one sentence, I'd say the banking system has traded efficiency for stability," says Ms Basu. "India's financial system is not about to collapse and if the government really wants the economy to grow at a faster pace, the time has come to focus on banking sector efficiency."

The public sector banks, which control more than 52 per cent of financial assets, retain powerful positions. They have extensive branch networks and enjoy the explicit guarantee of central government, a significant confidence boost for depositors in a country whose households, according to Morgan Stanley, were in March 2005 hoarding Dollars 200bn of gold, 2.5 times their holdings in the stock market.

So far, private and foreign banks, with much smaller networks, have made little inroad into the business of mobilising savings and demand deposits from the public, a business dominated by the public banks. Their arrival has been felt most in the high grade corporate market, where spreads have come down with growing access to capital markets and offshore finance.

A second wave of reforms forcing greater efficiencies on the banking sector is long overdue. "Many of the proposed reforms challenge the interests of privileged groups and some could involve painful adjustment, but delay will only increase the costs further," writes Michael Carter, head of the World Bank in India. "Financial sector reforms are critical to achieving sustained growth and prosperity."

*For further reading, see India's Financial Sector: Recent Reforms, Future Challenges edited by Priya Basu, Macmillan India, 2005, pp224, R350

LOAD-DATE: July 27, 2005

星期五, 七月 15, 2005

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - Document

LexisNexis(TM) Academic - DocumentCopyright 2005 The Financial Times Limited
Financial Times (London, England)

January 26, 2005 Wednesday
USA Edition 1

SECTION: LATIN AMERICA; Pg. 9

LENGTH: 392 words

HEADLINE: US and Brazil to discuss resuming talks on Americas free trade bloc

BYLINE: By RAYMOND COLITT

DATELINE: BRASILIA

BODY:


Brazilian and US officials will discuss relaunching the stalled negotiations towards a Free Trade Area of the Americas when they meet this week at the World Economic Forum.

Celso Amorim, Brazil's foreign minister, and Robert Zoellick, the outgoing US trade representative, will meet on the sidelines of the forum in Davos, Switzerland, to discuss regional and multilateral trade negotiations.

FTAA talks ground to a halt last year as the region's leading trade partners turned their attention towards agriculture talks at the World Trade Organisation. "Had we (all) spent as much time on the FTAA as we did on the WTO, we might have had more substantial progress," Mr Amorim told the Financial Times yesterday.

Market access proposals in FTAA talks had so far been "unsatisfactory", Mr Amorim said, but he also said he no longer saw "conceptual problems" with the negotiations.

The Brazilian government now proposes to focus talks on market access between the US and Mercosur, the four-nation South American trade bloc. "For us, the FTAA is about negotiations with the United States - the rest is just rhetoric," said Mr Amorim. The US has so far been hesitant to adopt the so-called "four-plus-one talks".

Yet Brasilia argues that it already has trade deals with all South American countries and is negotiating with Caribbean and Central American countries. In addition, Mr Amorim yesterday confirmed reports that Mercosur was looking to launch formal trade talks with Canada. "This could be a possible stepping stone towards the FTAA," he said.

The US has also been negotiating bilateral agreements with regional trade groups in Latin America.

Agreeing that both sides needed to make concessions, Mr Amorim suggested Mercosur was prepared to discuss market access to services and investments under current WTO regulations. Formal negotiations are likely to get under way only once a new US trade representative is named.

Yet Mr Amorim suggested that a new round of talks could benefit from Mr Zoellick's move to the US State Department, where he is tapped to become deputy secretary.

"Bob Zoellick will continue to have some influence, and he has interest - that's welcome. We have a very good understanding."

Meanwhile, an agreement between the European Union and Mercosur was "not very near yet", Mr Amorim said. Talks between both sides collapsed late last year.

LOAD-DATE: January 25, 2005


CAFTA


Cafta Is the American Way

By Henry M. Paulson Jr.
815 words
15 July 2005
The Asian Wall Street Journal
A9
English
(c) 2005 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. To see the edition in which this article appeared, click here http://awsj.com.hk/factiva-ns

At the turn of the 19th century, America underwent economic transformation and social upheaval unlike any in its history. The American way of life, rooted in the agrarian experience, was giving way to industrialization. From 1860-1910, the population of urban America increased sevenfold. The growth in industry and labor coupled with the influx of millions of immigrants would create both opportunity and hardship. Life on the family farm became much more difficult. Falling prices and diminished supplies of credit prompted farmers to ask for protections and reforms. Protests were commonplace. Yet during this time, the national wealth doubled.

We can look back and describe these developments as a period of growing pains in the life of a nation. But for the farmers and workers of the time, it was full of uncertainty and sacrifice. Change is frequently a messy, difficult and tense process. But it is also a natural and inevitable one as economies grow and become more sophisticated. For the U.S., the expansion in global trade and investment has translated into clear benefits. Since 1970, more than $4,300 in additional annual income per capita has been created because of increased trade, according to a study from the Institute of International Economics.

Today's global economy is in the midst of a period of even more intense growing pains. The emergence of new technologies, more efficient global capital flows and production, distribution and servicing networks are converging to create new levels of competition and challenge our traditional notions of comparative advantage.

As Congress considers the Central American Free Trade Agreement, and as we move into a critical stage of global trade talks, the U.S. will be presented with a fundamental question: Will it continue to lead and help pave the way through open markets to create new jobs and growth? The answer is not all together clear. Cafta, which would create the second-largest U.S. export market in Latin America, is struggling to gain enough support. Concerns about labor-rights protections and sugar imports threaten to kill an agreement that actually opens up Central America's markets to U.S. goods, which are subject to high tariffs. America's markets already are predominantly open to goods from these countries.

Cafta would give U.S. producers, particularly in textiles and agriculture, an equal footing to sell their goods. Central America and the Dominican Republic represent the second largest market for U.S. textiles and yarn. Cafta would preserve and increase this market by granting duty-free status if regional producers use U.S. fabrics. This would support U.S. jobs and help Central America compete with Asia, where U.S. materials account for less than 1% of clothes made. Failure to pass Cafta would not only hurt U.S. efforts to sell more of its goods to Central America and the Dominican Republic; it would represent a setback to U.S. trade policy and a rejection of a fundamental reason for U.S. growth.

Six months from now, trade ministers from around the world will convene in Hong Kong to try to agree to a framework for a global trade agreement. The outcome is by no means assured, and talks over trade in services -- representing over two-thirds of the U.S. economy -- are in particular peril. What chance will America have to rescue that agreement and what message will it send to the world if a regional trade agreement that included labor enforcement measures, safeguards to prevent import surges in textiles and clear economic benefits to U.S. and Central American workers couldn't attract enough support in Congress?

The U.S. economy is irreversibly affected by the health of the world's economy. It is in America's interest to push for open markets that have the power to create new demand from consumers in emerging economies. The Doha Development Round presents a tremendous opportunity to benefit billions of people in developing countries. By opening their financial services markets alone, developing countries could benefit from an income gain of close to $300 billion by the year 2015 -- an amount equivalent to an extra 2% of GDP. Over time, increasing foreign direct investment and access to capital will increase incomes and create new consumers for U.S. goods and services.

Americans have always looked confidently to the future. The economy and its growth have reflected that dynamism. That is not to suggest that economic adjustments don't adversely affect some workers and industries. They do, and we have to be more creative in how we deal with those dislocations. But change creates opportunities. Embracing it is necessary if America is going to stay competitive, grow the economy and create new jobs in the 21st century.

---

Mr. Paulson is chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs.

Document AWSJ000020050714e17f00022


星期二, 七月 12, 2005

Foreign Trade

Economic pact with Asean on fast track

Sanjeev Sharma & Ganapathy Subramaniam
563 words
12 July 2005
The Economic Times
English
(c) 2005 The Times of India Group. All rights reserved.

NEW DELHI: In a move which has significant implications for India's trade diplomacy, the government has decided to impose a freeze on negotiation of new economic pacts. At the same time, the proposed Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with Asean will be put on fast track. India will also focus strongly on long-term ties with the US, the European Union, China and Japan on the trade front.

Decisions to this effect have been taken by the Trade & Economic Relations Committee (TERC) headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The development is significant since it will have a major impact on India Inc's medium and long-term business plans. The policy direction comes close on the heels of a historic CECA with Singapore which was concluded last month.

The government is also considering merger of Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT), ICRIER and RIS to create an Indian Institute of World Economy and Trade. The proposed institution will help the government with groundwork on future trade pacts. The government will also look at supporting a centre for trade policy research within any of the economic research institutions that are working on trade and economic policy issues.

It is understood that the suggestion for merger of IIFT, ICRIER and RIS came from the Prime Minister and is aimed at creating a world-class institution which will help the government to assess the impact of trade pacts. The feeling within the government is that the existing mechanisms available for trade policy research is not adequate to meet evolving needs of the government.

The need for speeding up the CECA with Asean was highlighted by the finance ministry and the Planning Commission, highly-placed government sources said. The commerce department has been asked to look at liberal import rules to speed up the proposed agreement. Moves for economic integration with neighbours like Myanmar and Bangladesh will also be considered due to strategic reasons, the sources said. The TERC is likely to call for periodic review of the trade ties with major partners.

The bar on new trade pacts was mooted by the finance ministry, the sources added. The view that the country was negotiating too many trade pacts at the same time was accepted by the Prime Minister.

In case any joint study group recommends a new trade pact, it will be referred to the TERC. No new preferential trade agreement (PTA), regional trading arrangement (RTA), free-trade area (FTA) or CECA negotiation will be taken up without specific approval from the TERC.

As of now, India is looking at trade pacts with various trade partners, including China, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Pakistan, Australia, Mauritius, Chile and Israel. Similar pacts are being discussed with Asean, Gulf countries and Latin American countries while India is also part of the BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation) grouping. Initially, India was lagging in forging trade pacts as the focus was on the multilateral system, but steps have been taken in the recent past to catch up with other countries.

The Prime Minister is of the view that a comprehensive policy should guide negotiation of trade pacts. He feels various government departments should co-ordinate their efforts in line with the country's strategic interests to forge new trade pacts.

Document ECTIM00020050711e17c0005l


星期四, 七月 07, 2005

VOA News - China's Bank of Communications Makes Solid Debut

VOA News - China's Bank of Communications Makes Solid Debut
China's Bank of Communications Makes Solid Debut
By Thomas Kelley
Hong Kong
27 June 2005



Investors have responded positively to China's Bank of Communications debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange, while Britain's Standard Chartered Bank has acquired a stake in one of Vietnam's fastest growing lenders.

China's Bank of Communications opened strongly on the Hong Kong stock market Thursday, with shares jumping more than 12 percent. The company raised $1.9 billion in one of the biggest share offerings so far this year.

The Shanghai-based bank, known as BoCom, is the first of China's state-controlled banks to list its shares on a stock market outside the mainland.

Agnes Deng, a fund manager at Standard Life Investments in Hong Kong, says the bank's placement in a stock market that thrives on foreign trading is a key reason for strong investor interest. "It is actually the first Chinese bank listed overseas," she said. "That's why a lot of retail investors who didn't have exposure in terms of investing in China's financial sector … now they have a chance."

Global banking giant HSBC has already bought a 20 percent stake in BoCom, boosting investor confidence. But many analysts are still wary of the bank's long-term prospects, in part because of its large amount of unpaid loans.

Many investors also are waiting for the share offerings of China's bigger banks, such as China Construction Bank, due to list later this year.

Investors also welcomed China's move to include state-run, industrial giants Baosteel and Yangtze Power in its ongoing sale of $200 billion worth of state-held shares.

Analysts say the inclusion of the two blue-chip companies addresses complaints the government had withheld its stronger companies in its sell-off plan.

The United Kingdom's Standard Chartered Bank has spent $22 million to acquire an 8.5 percent stake in Vietnam's fast-growing Asia Commercial Bank.

The move reflects increased outside interest in Vietnam's economy, which has grown around seven percent a year for the last five years. But South Korea's economy continues to sputter. The Bank of Korea says consumer confidence dropped dramatically in the second quarter of 2005.

The increased pessimism is a further indication that an economic turnaround for South Korea is still beyond reach.

VOA News - CAFTA Passed by Senate, Approved by Key House Committee

VOA News - CAFTA Passed by Senate, Approved by Key House Committee
CAFTA Passed by Senate, Approved by Key House Committee
By Dan Robinson
Washington
01 July 2005

Robinson report (Real Media) - Download 481k
Robinson report (Real Media)


The free trade agreement with most Central American countries passed the U.S. Senate late Thursday and was approved by a key committee in the House of Representatives. The measure, known as CAFTA, is a priority on the Bush administration's trade agenda.

Approval by the House Ways and Means Committee improves the chances for CAFTA when the full House considers it after the Independence Day congressional holiday.

However, it still faces strong opposition in the House, much more than in the Senate.

The focus of intense lobbying, CAFTA seeks to bring down tariffs between the United States and five Central American countries -- Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, and includes a separate pact with the Dominican Republic.

Just as it is supported by a coalition of businesses which argue the pact will help fledgling democracies and their workers. It is opposed by many labor and other groups.

In an effort to pick up votes, the Bush administration provided assurances of millions of dollars in financial help for CAFTA countries to strengthen and enforce labor and environmental laws.

Bill Thomas, the Republican chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, responds to critics. "You have to look at the countries, their intent, and their commitment. I think it is quite telling that some of our colleagues are looking for things that would stop people from doing some things they are concerned about, and not looking at the changes that have been made," he said.

Democrat Congressman Ben Cardin says CAFTA does not do enough to require improvements in labor standards in the countries concerned. "If this bill becomes law, the United States will not be able to use trade sanctions or threat of trade sanctions, as we can today under [the Caribbean Basin Initiative] to press these countries to improve their labor standards and enforcement practices. Instead, the only inquiry we will be able to make is whether a country is enforcing its own labor laws, however weak they may be," he said.

CAFTA produced a split among lawmakers over sugar, with U.S. producers opposing the pact on grounds higher quotas for CAFTA countries will harm the industry.

The Bush administration worked hard to ease concerns on this issue as well, winning support from key Senate and House Republicans.

Republican Mark Foley, who represents areas in Florida with many small sugar producers, voted for the pact in the committee, but hopes more can be done to address concerns before the full House votes in July to address concerns on this issue. "I ask my industry groups to re-think, reflect, and try to see if there is any way in which we can all accord an agreement which will provide opportunities for all agriculture to embrace this agreement,' he said.

At present, it's estimated that are enough opponents of CAFTA in the House for it to be rejected there, a matter of concern for the White House.

During debate in the Senate Thursday, Democrat Kent Conrad argued CAFTA would contribute to worsening U.S. trade deficits as happened with Mexico under the North American Free Trade pact.

"We went from a two-billion dollar trade surplus with Mexico, to a $45-billion trade deficit. And the very people who negotiated that agreement are now going all over town telling us that this next one is another great success," he said.

CAFTA debate also touched on another sensitive issue: China's growing economic influence in the western hemisphere, and its trade surplus with the United States.

Congressman J. D. Hayworth says he will vote for CAFTA to underscore displeasure with China's trade practices. "It is important to hold [China] in check, to demand that that nation play by the rules. And I believe this agreement provides a serious and significant geopolitical and economic counterweight to growing influence from the People's Republic of China," he said.

Republicans and Democrats who ended their opposition to CAFTA say the pact isn't perfect, but contains enough positives, after administration steps to address concerns over sugar, to win their support.