Trade deal boosts Taiwan ties with China
By Robin Kwong in Taipei
Published: June 13 2010 20:14 | Last updated: June 13 2010 20:14
China and Taiwan have reached agreement on a wide-ranging trade deal that would be an important milestone for the warming of relations between the two cold war rivals.
The deal, called the Economic Co-operation Framework Agreement, or Ecfa, would also pave the way for Taiwan to join in the flurry of free trade deals being made by other Asian countries. China had previously blocked such efforts by Taiwan as it claims sovereignty over the democratically ruled island, but that opposition is expected to fade with the signing of the new agreement.
Without the opportunity to participate in trade deals, Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan president, said last week that his country would be “sure to lag behind, to be forced out of the global economic sphere and to be marginalised”.
Negotiators from both sides said they had made key breakthroughs after a third round of talks held in Beijing on Sunday, particularly in the “early harvest list” of what sectors would be included in the initial round of opening. The contents of that list had been the main sticking point in previous negotiations.
The breakthroughs allow the deal to be formally signed at the next semi-annual talks between the two sides. It also secures the centrepiece of Mr Ma’s policy of rapprochement with China, which is by far Taiwan’s biggest export market and where more than 1m Taiwanese already live and work.
The agreement, however, is facing strong political opposition within Taiwan, amid fears that economic integration could lead to political reunification and that the economic benefits of the deal will not be as great as Mr Ma has indicated.
Ecfa was “an Eventual Colonisation Framework Agreement that would cause Taiwan to be dominated by China”, Lee Teng-hui, former president, who belongs to the ruling Kuomintang party, said on Saturday. Mr Lee also said he would participate in a protest rally on June 26 organised by the main opposition Democratic Progressive party that is expected to attract more than 100,000 people.
In an effort to pacify the political opposition in Taiwan, Beijing has agreed to do most of the opening during the first stages of Ecfa, which is designed to set up a framework for future economic liberalisation rather than be a comprehensive trade agreement.
China would lower tariffs or otherwise further open its markets to some 500 categories of goods and services from Taiwan, while Taipei would only open about 200 categories, the negotiators said on Sunday.
Mr Ma had earlier wrested a pledge from China to not ask Taiwan to open its markets to Chinese workers or agricultural goods, items that are particularly politically sensitive.
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星期六, 八月 07, 2010
CHINA SEA
South-east Asia: A wider radius
By Tim Johnston
Published: January 27 2010 22:55 | Last updated: January 27 2010 22:55
Chinese soldier at the border of China and Burma
When Laos won its bid to host last month’s South-East Asian Games, China offered to help the tiny nation by building a gleaming new venue on the outskirts of the capital Vientiane. The facility included a “natatorium” for swimming and a stadium for soccer. But for the Laotian government, such generosity would not come cheaply.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Optimism defies gloom at Asia security meeting - Jun-06
Asean and China close to air travel deals - Feb-01
Biggest regional trade deal unveiled - Jan-01
Asean offers US meeting with Burma leader - Nov-13
Asia urges Obama to refocus on free trade - Nov-13
Asian leaders look to bolster regional ties - Oct-25
China’s Suzhou Industrial Park Overseas Investment Co was promised a 50-year lease on 1,600 hectares of land on the outskirts of the capital in return for building the venue. But an exceptional public backlash, fuelled by news that the Chinese intended to bring in 3,000 labourers to do the job, forced the government to cut the size of the concession to 200 hectares and promise to find extra land elsewhere to compensate for the loss.
The episode illustrates both the gravitational pull exerted by China’s economic and strategic might, drawing the nations of continental south-east Asia into a tighter orbit, and the counterveiling tensions that are becoming apparent as a result. Economic and diplomatic imperatives are starting to clash with nationalist fears of becoming – in many cases not for the first time – satellites of Beijing.
In Vietnam, Chinese plans to mine bauxite have run into heavy public criticism; in Cambodia, farmers and fishermen are worried that their land and water are being bought up; even in Burma, which has few other friends, China’s growing stature and self-confidence are being watched with a degree of trepidation.
Asean trade deficit with China
It is not just within the region that there are worries. For years, south-east Asia has provided a cheap and dependable reservoir of labour for international manufacturers. While western investors struggle to make a profit in China, the fat margins on Vietnamese T-shirts or Malaysian hard drives have boosted many a multinational’s balance sheet.
Free trade and rising tension
When the free-trade agreement between China and the 10 Association of South East Asian Nations came into force this year, pulling together 1.9bn people and eliminating tariffs on 90 per cent of products, it was greeted publicly as the dawn of a new era but privately with concern. Producers in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines fear markets will be swamped by competition from their larger partner, with which Asean no longer runs a trade surplus. However, a recent Standard Chartered Bank report shows that commodities exporters such as Indonesia and Vietnam are likely to benefit from China’s rise, unlike nations such as Thailand and Malaysia whose export profiles overlap substantially with China’s.
The threat to the delicate regional balance is being taken increasingly seriously both within Asia and outside, particularly given a flurry of recent arms purchases by Vietnam, Thailand and Burma: all countries where the military sit close to the centre of political power.
The fears on the streets of Asian capitals and in the boardrooms of the west have forced the governments of the region into a delicate balancing act. Given China’s sensitivity to criticism, they are having to tread a fine line between placating the concerns of their citizenry and keeping Beijing on side, while also reassuring investors. “There is a difference between what the politicians say in public and what the population feels,” says Malcolm Cook at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney.
In many ways, China’s proximity is a blessing for its neighbours. In the longer term, the rise of China as a power has given south-east Asia a renewed geostrategic relevance in keeping with its economic heft. The 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations comprise nearly 600m people and have a combined gross domestic product of some $1,500bn (€1,065bn, £925bn).
When Hillary Clinton stood on a podium at an Asean summit in Thailand last year and told her audience, “We’re back,” her immediate reference was to the wilderness years of US foreign policy under the administration of George W. Bush. But for many, America’s south-east Asia policy has been in a torpor for almost two decades. Jim Webb, Democratic chairman of the Senate subcommittee on east Asian and Pacific affairs, this week described the region as “a long-overlooked area of our foreign policy, rooted in the often contradictory standards we have used in the past and still use today in defining the underlying parameters of our relationships with different countries and different governmental systems”.
China’s willingness to spread its largesse without the troublesome conditions regarding human rights that Washington commonly appends to its assistance has also been welcomed in a region that has a rocky relationship with democracy. The result is a renewed competition for influence among the four regional powers: China, India, Japan and the US.
“Asean is going through one of its sweetest moments in its history because it has four suitors interested in it,” says Kishore Mahbubani, a professor at the National University of Singapore. “It could be a battlefield if the competition is military, but if it is economic it will be wonderful for south-east Asia.”
Today, the US is more willing than before to engage with the region regardless of democratic credentials – and countering the influence of China is high on the agenda, particularly in the case of Burma. Much of the enthusiasm of the Burmese junta in welcoming US overtures is driven, say analysts, by the generals’ desire to counterbalance the Chinese influence.
In the short term, proximity to Chinese economic success has taken some of the edge off the impact of the global financial crisis; the largesse of China’s domestic stimulus programme is also spilling over its southern border to help buoy the economies of the region.
The most obvious manifestation is the gaudy tide mark of casinos and golf courses that clings to the border through Burma, Laos and Vietnam: 24-hour neon-lit extravaganzas where tipsy Chinese apparatchiks rub shoulders with gangsters and entrepreneurs to risk tens of thousands of renminbi on the turn of a card.
In many towns along the China-Burma border, there is little to tell travellers they are not in China; shopkeepers prefer renminbi to the local currency, the mobile telephone service comes from China Telecom and, in at least one hotel, all the room numbers start with eight – a lucky number for Chinese gamblers.
Asean-countries-map
But the economic effect of the boom is less than it might seem. Although China is growing in importance as a trading partner, it still accounts for less than one-quarter of the consumption of emerging east Asia’s exports and for many countries it is a direct competitor. (Even the casinos are mostly Chinese-owned and most of the croupiers, bar staff and prostitutes are recruited from across the border.)
For much of south-east Asia, the benefits of China as a neighbour are tempered with foreboding that as its gravitational pull increases, it might ultimately suck in their economies and societies. “One of the fears is that China will take over the regional production chain: that it will swallow south-east Asia’s lunch,” says Mr Cook of the Lowy Institute.
It is a fear that is informed by the nations’ history. “They have a lot of baggage with China,” says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of International and Security Studies in Bangkok. “The Communist party of China has been supportive of local communist insurgencies in almost all countries in the region.”
Anti-Chinese feeling has boiled over in a number of places in Asia-Pacific in the past 50 years: there were anti-Chinese riots in Burma in 1967; hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese fled Vietnam in the wake of the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979; dozens of Chinese were killed in riots in Indonesia in 1969 and again in 1998; most recently, Chinese businesses were burnt to the ground in Papua New Guinea last year.
Indonesia has moved to delay the implementation of the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement in important areas, particularly steel and textiles, and in October accused China of dumping nails and imposed a punitive tariff of 145 per cent on its shipments.
For its part, Beijing is sensitive to the effect it is having on its neighbours and has tried to step lightly in the region. When the Chinese and Asean leaderships meet, careful choreography ensures they are portrayed as equals. China, on a charm offensive, last year offered a total of $25bn to Asean nations: $15bn in loans, including $6.7bn in preferential credit, as well as a $10bn investment fund.
Last month Xi Jinping, China’s vice-president and heir apparent to Hu Jintao, took a swing through Asia, stopping in Burma to reaffirm support for the regime and sign a slew of co-operation pacts, including a deal to build an oil and gas pipeline to the heart of China’s Yunnan province. In Cambodia, where China is the biggest foreign investor, Mr Xi signed $1.2bn worth of deals, just two days after the Cambodian authorities defied international pressure to deport 20 Uighur asylum-seekers whom China suspected of involvement in July’s unrest in the province of Xinjiang.
In spite of all this, the potential still exists for violent confrontation in south-east Asia, particularly over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which are claimed in all or in part by Brunei, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Beijing has recently become more assertive in the South China Sea, which is believed to hold large oil and gas reserves. On new year’s eve it announced plans to make the Paracels a “top-class” tourist destination, provoking a sharp response from Vietnam. Last March it dispatched China Yuzheng 311, the largest ship in its fisheries protection fleet, to the South China Sea to fly the flag in response to incursions including a number of landings among the atolls of the Spratlys by officials from Malaysia.
There are also signs that south-east Asia is rearming. Vietnam recently announced that it would buy six Kilo-class submarines and 12 fighter jets from Russia, Burma has been shopping for Russian combat aircraft and Thailand has allocated money to re-equip its air force with new fighters.
Internally, south-east Asia is a potentially toxic mix of raw nationalism, resource competition and a kaleidoscope of political systems that, democracy aside, ranges from absolute monarchy in Brunei via military dictatorship in Burma to the communist regimes of Laos and Vietnam.
Both the rise of China and renewed US interest are altering the balance of an entente asiatique that has broadly held since the end of the Vietnam war. If the competition is economic it could, as Prof Mahbubani says, be good for the region, but there are no guarantees that rivalries can be contained within the economic sphere.
As Mr Thitinan in Bangkok puts it: “Some Chinese think their role in the past was as an imperial power in this region. This is their back yard and they see a pattern of the past coming true again.”
HANOI PERMITS PUBLIC DEFIANCE OF ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOUR – UP TO A POINT
Vietnam has a long and confrontational history with its giant northern neighbour. So in 2008, when Aluminum Corporation of China put forward a plan to mine bauxite there, it struck a raw nerve.
A public argument erupted, startling observers of a country where most important policy decisions are brewed behind closed doors then rubber-stamped by the national congress.
Although the debate was couched in terms of potential environmental and social damage, for many it was rooted in Sinophobia forged by a millennium of Chinese rule – though it ended 1,000 years ago – and in a simmering territorial dispute over the Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea. Vo Nguyen Giap, the 98-year-old architect of victories against the French and Americans between the 1950s and 1970s, who once accused the Chinese of tearing up infants during the abortive 1979 invasion, lent moral authority to opposition, calling for an environmental survey to be completed first. A final decision on the full project is pending, although a pilot is going ahead.
Why the Vietnamese government, which runs one of the world’s most restricted media environments, allowed such a potentially incendiary debate to take place in public is unclear. Some analysts say it allowed the authorities to hold up the deal without offending China, even if it was only to drive a harder bargain.
Whatever the reason, the authorities ensured the arguments focused on the environmental and social cost. Once it became clear dissenters were turning their criticism on China, they clamped down. Nguyen Hoang Hai, a prominent blogger and human rights activist, was sentenced to 30 months in prison in September for tax fraud. Another blogger, Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, was arrested in August and accused of “abusing democratic freedoms to infringe on the interests of the state”. Both had been vocal critics not only of the bauxite mine but also of government policy on the disputed groups of islands.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.
By Tim Johnston
Published: January 27 2010 22:55 | Last updated: January 27 2010 22:55
Chinese soldier at the border of China and Burma
When Laos won its bid to host last month’s South-East Asian Games, China offered to help the tiny nation by building a gleaming new venue on the outskirts of the capital Vientiane. The facility included a “natatorium” for swimming and a stadium for soccer. But for the Laotian government, such generosity would not come cheaply.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Optimism defies gloom at Asia security meeting - Jun-06
Asean and China close to air travel deals - Feb-01
Biggest regional trade deal unveiled - Jan-01
Asean offers US meeting with Burma leader - Nov-13
Asia urges Obama to refocus on free trade - Nov-13
Asian leaders look to bolster regional ties - Oct-25
China’s Suzhou Industrial Park Overseas Investment Co was promised a 50-year lease on 1,600 hectares of land on the outskirts of the capital in return for building the venue. But an exceptional public backlash, fuelled by news that the Chinese intended to bring in 3,000 labourers to do the job, forced the government to cut the size of the concession to 200 hectares and promise to find extra land elsewhere to compensate for the loss.
The episode illustrates both the gravitational pull exerted by China’s economic and strategic might, drawing the nations of continental south-east Asia into a tighter orbit, and the counterveiling tensions that are becoming apparent as a result. Economic and diplomatic imperatives are starting to clash with nationalist fears of becoming – in many cases not for the first time – satellites of Beijing.
In Vietnam, Chinese plans to mine bauxite have run into heavy public criticism; in Cambodia, farmers and fishermen are worried that their land and water are being bought up; even in Burma, which has few other friends, China’s growing stature and self-confidence are being watched with a degree of trepidation.
Asean trade deficit with China
It is not just within the region that there are worries. For years, south-east Asia has provided a cheap and dependable reservoir of labour for international manufacturers. While western investors struggle to make a profit in China, the fat margins on Vietnamese T-shirts or Malaysian hard drives have boosted many a multinational’s balance sheet.
Free trade and rising tension
When the free-trade agreement between China and the 10 Association of South East Asian Nations came into force this year, pulling together 1.9bn people and eliminating tariffs on 90 per cent of products, it was greeted publicly as the dawn of a new era but privately with concern. Producers in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines fear markets will be swamped by competition from their larger partner, with which Asean no longer runs a trade surplus. However, a recent Standard Chartered Bank report shows that commodities exporters such as Indonesia and Vietnam are likely to benefit from China’s rise, unlike nations such as Thailand and Malaysia whose export profiles overlap substantially with China’s.
The threat to the delicate regional balance is being taken increasingly seriously both within Asia and outside, particularly given a flurry of recent arms purchases by Vietnam, Thailand and Burma: all countries where the military sit close to the centre of political power.
The fears on the streets of Asian capitals and in the boardrooms of the west have forced the governments of the region into a delicate balancing act. Given China’s sensitivity to criticism, they are having to tread a fine line between placating the concerns of their citizenry and keeping Beijing on side, while also reassuring investors. “There is a difference between what the politicians say in public and what the population feels,” says Malcolm Cook at the Lowy Institute for International Policy in Sydney.
In many ways, China’s proximity is a blessing for its neighbours. In the longer term, the rise of China as a power has given south-east Asia a renewed geostrategic relevance in keeping with its economic heft. The 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations comprise nearly 600m people and have a combined gross domestic product of some $1,500bn (€1,065bn, £925bn).
When Hillary Clinton stood on a podium at an Asean summit in Thailand last year and told her audience, “We’re back,” her immediate reference was to the wilderness years of US foreign policy under the administration of George W. Bush. But for many, America’s south-east Asia policy has been in a torpor for almost two decades. Jim Webb, Democratic chairman of the Senate subcommittee on east Asian and Pacific affairs, this week described the region as “a long-overlooked area of our foreign policy, rooted in the often contradictory standards we have used in the past and still use today in defining the underlying parameters of our relationships with different countries and different governmental systems”.
China’s willingness to spread its largesse without the troublesome conditions regarding human rights that Washington commonly appends to its assistance has also been welcomed in a region that has a rocky relationship with democracy. The result is a renewed competition for influence among the four regional powers: China, India, Japan and the US.
“Asean is going through one of its sweetest moments in its history because it has four suitors interested in it,” says Kishore Mahbubani, a professor at the National University of Singapore. “It could be a battlefield if the competition is military, but if it is economic it will be wonderful for south-east Asia.”
Today, the US is more willing than before to engage with the region regardless of democratic credentials – and countering the influence of China is high on the agenda, particularly in the case of Burma. Much of the enthusiasm of the Burmese junta in welcoming US overtures is driven, say analysts, by the generals’ desire to counterbalance the Chinese influence.
In the short term, proximity to Chinese economic success has taken some of the edge off the impact of the global financial crisis; the largesse of China’s domestic stimulus programme is also spilling over its southern border to help buoy the economies of the region.
The most obvious manifestation is the gaudy tide mark of casinos and golf courses that clings to the border through Burma, Laos and Vietnam: 24-hour neon-lit extravaganzas where tipsy Chinese apparatchiks rub shoulders with gangsters and entrepreneurs to risk tens of thousands of renminbi on the turn of a card.
In many towns along the China-Burma border, there is little to tell travellers they are not in China; shopkeepers prefer renminbi to the local currency, the mobile telephone service comes from China Telecom and, in at least one hotel, all the room numbers start with eight – a lucky number for Chinese gamblers.
Asean-countries-map
But the economic effect of the boom is less than it might seem. Although China is growing in importance as a trading partner, it still accounts for less than one-quarter of the consumption of emerging east Asia’s exports and for many countries it is a direct competitor. (Even the casinos are mostly Chinese-owned and most of the croupiers, bar staff and prostitutes are recruited from across the border.)
For much of south-east Asia, the benefits of China as a neighbour are tempered with foreboding that as its gravitational pull increases, it might ultimately suck in their economies and societies. “One of the fears is that China will take over the regional production chain: that it will swallow south-east Asia’s lunch,” says Mr Cook of the Lowy Institute.
It is a fear that is informed by the nations’ history. “They have a lot of baggage with China,” says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of International and Security Studies in Bangkok. “The Communist party of China has been supportive of local communist insurgencies in almost all countries in the region.”
Anti-Chinese feeling has boiled over in a number of places in Asia-Pacific in the past 50 years: there were anti-Chinese riots in Burma in 1967; hundreds of thousands of ethnic Chinese fled Vietnam in the wake of the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979; dozens of Chinese were killed in riots in Indonesia in 1969 and again in 1998; most recently, Chinese businesses were burnt to the ground in Papua New Guinea last year.
Indonesia has moved to delay the implementation of the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement in important areas, particularly steel and textiles, and in October accused China of dumping nails and imposed a punitive tariff of 145 per cent on its shipments.
For its part, Beijing is sensitive to the effect it is having on its neighbours and has tried to step lightly in the region. When the Chinese and Asean leaderships meet, careful choreography ensures they are portrayed as equals. China, on a charm offensive, last year offered a total of $25bn to Asean nations: $15bn in loans, including $6.7bn in preferential credit, as well as a $10bn investment fund.
Last month Xi Jinping, China’s vice-president and heir apparent to Hu Jintao, took a swing through Asia, stopping in Burma to reaffirm support for the regime and sign a slew of co-operation pacts, including a deal to build an oil and gas pipeline to the heart of China’s Yunnan province. In Cambodia, where China is the biggest foreign investor, Mr Xi signed $1.2bn worth of deals, just two days after the Cambodian authorities defied international pressure to deport 20 Uighur asylum-seekers whom China suspected of involvement in July’s unrest in the province of Xinjiang.
In spite of all this, the potential still exists for violent confrontation in south-east Asia, particularly over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, which are claimed in all or in part by Brunei, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Beijing has recently become more assertive in the South China Sea, which is believed to hold large oil and gas reserves. On new year’s eve it announced plans to make the Paracels a “top-class” tourist destination, provoking a sharp response from Vietnam. Last March it dispatched China Yuzheng 311, the largest ship in its fisheries protection fleet, to the South China Sea to fly the flag in response to incursions including a number of landings among the atolls of the Spratlys by officials from Malaysia.
There are also signs that south-east Asia is rearming. Vietnam recently announced that it would buy six Kilo-class submarines and 12 fighter jets from Russia, Burma has been shopping for Russian combat aircraft and Thailand has allocated money to re-equip its air force with new fighters.
Internally, south-east Asia is a potentially toxic mix of raw nationalism, resource competition and a kaleidoscope of political systems that, democracy aside, ranges from absolute monarchy in Brunei via military dictatorship in Burma to the communist regimes of Laos and Vietnam.
Both the rise of China and renewed US interest are altering the balance of an entente asiatique that has broadly held since the end of the Vietnam war. If the competition is economic it could, as Prof Mahbubani says, be good for the region, but there are no guarantees that rivalries can be contained within the economic sphere.
As Mr Thitinan in Bangkok puts it: “Some Chinese think their role in the past was as an imperial power in this region. This is their back yard and they see a pattern of the past coming true again.”
HANOI PERMITS PUBLIC DEFIANCE OF ITS NORTHERN NEIGHBOUR – UP TO A POINT
Vietnam has a long and confrontational history with its giant northern neighbour. So in 2008, when Aluminum Corporation of China put forward a plan to mine bauxite there, it struck a raw nerve.
A public argument erupted, startling observers of a country where most important policy decisions are brewed behind closed doors then rubber-stamped by the national congress.
Although the debate was couched in terms of potential environmental and social damage, for many it was rooted in Sinophobia forged by a millennium of Chinese rule – though it ended 1,000 years ago – and in a simmering territorial dispute over the Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea. Vo Nguyen Giap, the 98-year-old architect of victories against the French and Americans between the 1950s and 1970s, who once accused the Chinese of tearing up infants during the abortive 1979 invasion, lent moral authority to opposition, calling for an environmental survey to be completed first. A final decision on the full project is pending, although a pilot is going ahead.
Why the Vietnamese government, which runs one of the world’s most restricted media environments, allowed such a potentially incendiary debate to take place in public is unclear. Some analysts say it allowed the authorities to hold up the deal without offending China, even if it was only to drive a harder bargain.
Whatever the reason, the authorities ensured the arguments focused on the environmental and social cost. Once it became clear dissenters were turning their criticism on China, they clamped down. Nguyen Hoang Hai, a prominent blogger and human rights activist, was sentenced to 30 months in prison in September for tax fraud. Another blogger, Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, was arrested in August and accused of “abusing democratic freedoms to infringe on the interests of the state”. Both had been vocal critics not only of the bauxite mine but also of government policy on the disputed groups of islands.
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Biggest regional trade deal unveiled
By Kevin Brown in Singapore
Published: January 1 2010 16:35 | Last updated: January 1 2010 16:35
Containers waiting to be moved at Shanghai’s port
Containers wait to be moved at Shanghai’s port. The country stands to benefit from the deal with Asean as it seeks new markets for its goods
China and the 10-country Association of South East Asian Nations on Friday launched the final stage of the world’s biggest regional trade agreement, measured by population, in spite of Indonesia’s last-minute attempts at renegotiation.
The launch of the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement, which covers almost 1.9bn people, coincides with the implementation of a similar deal with Australia and New Zealand and a deepening of Asean’s own internal trading agreements.
Taken together with earlier deals with Japan, South Korea and India, the New Year day accord puts south-east Asia at the centre of a series of regional trade agreements extending from Beijing to Wellington and from New Delhi to Tokyo.
The China-Asean deal takes effect following the completion last summer of an agreement on investment rules, the last leg of an eight-year negotiating marathon that produced earlier agreements on goods and services.
Tariffs have been falling since 2005, with 90 per cent of goods due to be tariff free from Friday for China and the six core Asean members – Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei. The target is 2015 for the other four – Laos, Cambodia, Burma and Vietnam.
mapHowever, the deal remains short of genuine free trade. The trade in goods agreement provides for each country to register hundreds of sensitive goods on which tariffs will continue to apply, in many cases until at least 2020.
Sensitive products include various types of electronic equipment, motor vehicles and automotive parts and chemicals, as well as items such as popcorn, snowboarding equipment and toilet paper.
The deal creates the third largest regional trading agreement by value after the European Union and the North American Free Trade Agreement, covering countries with mutual trade flows of $231bn in 2008 and combined gross domestic product of about $6,000bn, according to China’s ministry of commerce.
Jayant Menon, principal economist in the Asian Development Bank’s office of regional economic integration, said it could eventually lead to a wider trade agreement involving Asean, China, Japan, South Korea and the US – an idea floated in November by Yukio Hatoyama, the Japanese prime minister. “There is a lot of expectation of this FTA,” said Mr Menon.
Surin Pitsuwan, Asean’s secretary-general, said the agreement would allow the Asean countries to benefit more from the growth of China, which is already south-east Asia’s third largest trading partner, with about 11 per cent of total two-way trade. “When China grows, Asean has to ensure that we are on the supply line towards that growth,” he said.
Asean, which has a population of 580m and a combined economy bigger than that of India, has substantial reserves of resources such as oil, natural gas, coal and other commodities that China desperately needs to keep its factories operating.
China, which runs a substantial trade surplus with Asean, stands to benefit hugely from easier access to the bloc as it seeks new Asian markets for goods that can no longer be sold to consumers in Europe and North America.
“China and the Asean countries have many products that complement each other,” Zhang Kening, a director at the ministry of commerce, said earlier this week. “We can see great potential to adjust our trade patterns by importing more from Asean countries.”
The deal remains deeply controversial within the region, where suspicion of China’s economic clout and political ambitions vies with the desire to take advantage of the export potential of its fast-growing economy.
Indonesia has led opposition to the pact, seeking to delay its implementation because of fears that sectors from steel and petrochemicals to cosmetics and herbal medicines would face overwhelming competition from cheap Chinese imports.
Jakarta has announced a review of the impact of the deal, but drew back from tougher action after the industry minister told parliament his attempts to renegotiate elements of the deal with the other 10 countries had failed.
The co-ordinating minister for the economy warned on Wednesday that there could still be clashes between Jakarta and Beijing. “When a nation has cheap products, we must see whether there’s unfair trade in it, such as unfair subsidies,” he said. “We must be proactive.”
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FOOTNOTE:
ASEAN-6 Achieves Zero Tariffs
ASEAN Secretariat, 31 December 2009
Starting the first day of 2010, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand can import and export almost all goods across their borders at no tariff.
As of 1 January, for ASEAN-6 an additional 7,881 tariff lines will come down to zero tariffs, bringing the total tariff lines traded under the Common Effective Preferential Tariffs for ASEAN Free Trade Area (CEPT-AFTA) to 54,457 or 99.11%. Additionally, with the reduction, the average tariff rate for these countries is expected to further decrease from 0.79% in 2009 to just 0.05% in 2010. In 2008, intra-ASEAN import value of commodities for these 7,881 tariff lines amounted to US$ 22.66 billion, or 11.84% of ASEAN-6 import value within ASEAN.
The tariff lines include final consumer products such as air conditioners; chilli, fish and soya sauces; as well as intermediate materials such as motorcycle components and motor car cylinders. Other products include iron and steel, plastics, machinery and mechanical appliances, chemicals, prepared foodstuff, paper, cement, ceramic and glass sectors.
The elimination of tariffs by ASEAN-6 underscores ASEAN’s commitment to dismantle tariffs and keep intra-ASEAN trade open. It will also serve as a catalyst for the development of the single market and production base projected by the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) Blueprint.
The actual impact and how much this final instalment will be translated as savings for consumers will depend on the market dynamics of the respective ASEAN-6 countries. The Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr Surin Pitsuwan, said that “We sincerely hope that all parties will act to ensure that the man on the street will benefit from these reductions in tariffs.”
As for the business community, especially the downstream producers, Dr Surin said that they also stand to gain. “Lower cost of inputs will allow the business community a wider choice of goods, and in the process, they will move towards becoming more competitive globally, as envisaged in the AEC Blueprint,” he added.
The CEPT-AFTA covers the whole range of products traded by the ASEAN Member States and provides for the gradual reduction in tariffs of these products, which has been ongoing since 1993. Under the CEPT-AFTA schedule for tariff reduction, each ASEAN Member State is allowed to place their products in the normal track, where the commitment is for the tariffs to be reduced to zero by 2010 for ASEAN-6 and 2015 for the remaining four countries, namely Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Viet Nam. In 2010, these countries will also see tariff reductions under the CEPT-AFTA commitments to 5%, where the average tariff rate will decrease from 3% in 2009 to 2.61%.
Under the CEPT-AFTA, agricultural products such as tobacco, coffee, live animals and animal products, which come under the Sensitive List (SL), will have their tariffs reduced to 5% on 2010 and to zero tariff by 2015. The Highly Sensitive List (HSL), comprising rice, will have their tariffs capped on a specified date. As for the General Exclusion List (GEL), the tariffs will remain based on factors such as national security and morals/health/aesthetic/archaeological grounds (e.g.: weapons and opium). As of today, 487 tariff lines or 0.89% of tariff lines for ASEAN-6 still remain in the SL, HSL and GEL categories.
Besides tariff liberalisation, ASEAN is also embarking on parallel initiatives in trade facilitation to complement tariff reduction. ASEAN is also actively working on formulating streamlined and simplified customs procedures for clearance of goods, eliminating non-tariff measures, developing the ASEAN Single Window and the ASEAN Trade Repository, improving investment protection, providing for dispute settlement and better Intellectual Property Rights regime and removing the obstacles hindering the movement of professional and skilled workers.
星期六, 三月 18, 2006
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印度经济:进入发展快车道 21世纪经济报道 2006-03-16 15:36:50
特约评论员 秦明阳 印度的内部改革和外交政策调整，为其经济腾飞提供了动力。就目前的情况来看，印度经济正在进入快车道。 近来有关印度经济发展前景的乐观预测不绝于耳。国际会计咨询公司普华永道公司不久前发表研究报告说，中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯、印尼、墨西哥和土耳其这7个新兴经济体的经济总量到2005年将超过“七国集团”(G7)的。其中印度的经济发展速度将是最快的，从现在起到2050年的平均增长率为7.6％。 此前国际货币基金组织也预测说，印度经济几年内年增长率将达8%－10％。美国著名智库经济战略研究所的所长普雷斯托维茨在其《30亿新资本家：财富和实力向东方大转移》一书中也给出了类似的乐观预测，他说印度经济在未来一定时期内将维持7%－8％的增长率。 与此同时，印度官员也充满了信心。辛格总理去年底表示，印度经济增长率在2－3年内将达到10％。 其实考虑到印度经济自上世纪九十年代以来十几年的快速增长，再加上中国这个参照系，此类乐观的预测不能说是夸大其辞。印度在过去14年的平均增长率超过6％，其速度之高和持续时间之长仅次于中国。如果单从时间方面来比较，印度经济改革的1991－2005年可以说相当于中国的1978－1992年。1992年是中国经济改革的一个转折点，因为这一年邓小平发表南巡讲话，宣示中国的经济改革趋势不可逆转，而且中共十四大又确立了建立社会主义市场经济的改革目标。此后中国的改革开放和经济发展进入了快车道。历经14年改革和快速发展的印度也可以说正进入类似阶段。 当然，与其他经济体相比，印度无疑是后来者，在很多方面已经落后了。其落后的基础设施、官僚主义、对企业不利的劳动法、对外国投资的众多限制等常常为人们所诟病。但这些都是改革有待克服的问题，同时也说明了改革的必要性，而不能被视为改革失败的象征。尽管未来存在不确定性因素，但国际权威机构提供的预测和印度官员本身的自信都说明，印度经济当前正进入快车道，“印度式的经济增长率”已经成为历史。不仅内部出现了强劲的搏动，而且外部环境对其发展也有利。 借力：推进内部改革 印度现任总理辛格无疑是坚定的改革派，更有印度“经济改革之父”的美誉。1991年他担任财政部长时就致力于经济改革，到2004年担任总理时凭借手中更大的权力加快了经济改革的步伐。今年年初，他不顾其联盟政府中左翼伙伴的强烈反对和工会的大罢工推行机场管理私有化的举措，就很能说明他的改革意志。 尽管有坚定的改革决心，但辛格发起的改革注定要面对重重困难。这首先是因为他是一位弱势总理。他所在的国大党未能控制国会议席中的绝对多数，因此不得不跟其他政党结盟。在这种情况下，他必须进行折衷妥协，就改革措施取得联盟伙伴的支持，以防政府垮台。 更重要的是，印度的经济改革仍面临很多禁忌或雷区。辛格政府推行的机场管理私有化政策所激起的大罢工就很能说明私有化问题的敏感性。更准确地说，印度政府对国有企业的改革不是私有化，而是“去投资化”，而且“去投资化”的比例一般不会超过国有企业总资本的50％。尽管如此，仍会遭遇很大的阻力。印度改革面临的另一个棘手问题是劳动法改革。1947年颁布的《产业纠纷法案》规定，雇佣100名以上员工的企业在没有获得政府许可的情况下不能解雇任何人。但政府很少会批准公司解聘员工。这部缺乏灵活性的法案实际上对劳资双方都没好处，因为它促使印度公司选择资本密集型产业，即便有廉价的劳动力也不充分利用。尽管这部法案已经不合时宜，但各个政党顾忌它在政治上的敏感性而不愿触及。如何放宽诸多对外国资本进入的限制也是一个有待解决的问题。 不过尽管印度的改革开放进展缓慢，而且有可能遭遇重大挫折，但这并不妨碍印度经济仍以较快的速度增长。事实上，印度在过去14年里的改革动作并不大，但经济仍以超过6％的年增长率发展，这很大程度上得益于在印度现行体制之外出现了新的增长点。这证实了1979年诺贝尔经济学奖得主之一阿瑟·刘易斯的判断：“经济的变化并不完全产生于制度的变化。经济增长可能产生于资本形成的增加、新技术的应用或者不是源于制度变化的其他因素。”就印度来说，它是引进了新的技术。它虽然错过了制造业大发展的潮流，却在服务业大发展的趋势下抓住了机会。印度政府虽然在改革现行体制方面步调缓慢，却很少对新兴行业如信息技术、外包服务等进行干预。印度私营部门在这些行业有了大展身手的机会，并有不俗的表现。在此过程中，印度出现了一批在国际市场上叱咤风云的本土企业，如软件业巨头Infosys、Wipro等，令国际社会对印度刮目相看。 然而，如果我们只是关注印度新兴产业的产值、出口额和创造的就业机会等纯粹的经济指标，就未免会低估其作用。 在新兴产业中诞生的一批杰出企业家在推动印度经济发展、提高印度的国际知名度和声誉的同时也提高了自身的社会政治地位。印度独立后尼赫鲁那一代领导人所推行的“费边社会主义”虽然不主张消灭私营企业，但在国家政策上却向国有企业倾斜，厚此薄彼的倾向十分明显，私营企业及其业主相对受到轻视。不过如今这一批靠自己的聪明才智通过合法途径取得经济成就的明星级企业家已经获得崇高的社会政治地位，他们在国人眼中成了“民族英雄”。其中Infosys的创始人纳拉亚纳·穆尔蒂被印度人骄傲地誉为“印度的比尔·盖茨”。他们的社会政治地位得到了充分的认可。这一点对任何社会的经济发展都是很重要的，历史已经证明，在商人的社会和政治地位低贱的国家，其经济发展是有限的。刘易斯认为，商业地位在英国和西班牙殖民扩张时期的贵贱很大程度上可以解释它们后来的发展差异。 他们享有崇高社会地位的影响之一是刺激印度这个宗教氛围浓厚、盛行禁欲主义的国家的经济活动。正如刘易斯所说的那样，任何社会中最富有进取心的年青人总是会选择能为他们赢得最崇高社会地位的职业，而“只有在经济活动中有成就的组织者能获取最高声誉，他们才会把自己的心思转向经济活动”。他们所享有的社会地位会吸引更多的人创造财富，而不只是分享他人的成果。此时在印度的金融中心———孟买———的贫民窟中，也许正有一个少年梦想着成为下一个“印度的比尔·盖茨———纳拉亚纳·穆尔蒂”。 他们对印度经济发展和国际声誉提高的贡献也为他们赢得了更为宽松的环境。曾经无所不管的印度官僚机构很少干预这个既能推动国内经济发展又能提高该国国际声誉的新兴产业，更没有对私营部门实施有歧视性的政策和法律。从更积极的角度来看，他们作为社会的革新者，能够引导现行体制向更有利于经济发展的方向转变，促使制度性的障碍以更快的速度瓦解。经济的发展与制度的转变之间存在互动关系，经济发展必定引起制度的变革，而制度的变革又反过来强化有利于经济增长的力量。印度如果进入这个良性循环阶段，其经济就能以更快的速度发展。 拓路：改善外部环境 外交是内政的延续。自1991年印度启动经济改革以来，其外交政策相应进行了调整，明显倾向于为经济改革和发展服务。这种调整为其内部的改革和经济发展营造了比较有利的外在环境，其中最显著的成果体现在它与美国、中国及其海外侨胞的关系的改善。 印度与美国的关系在冷战期间处于一种不冷不热的状态，不过近年来出现稳步发展的态势。美国总统布什3月初对印度的访问将双边关系推向了一个新的高度，在印度和美国这两边都有人将其与尼克松访华相提并论。对于处在经济改革和发展的初步阶段的印度来说，与美国改善关系的好处是显而易见的，因为就目前来说，美国依然拥有世界最庞大的市场、最雄厚的资本和最先进的技术，而且还在国际货币基金组织和世界银行拥有最大的发言权。 布什在访印期间人们关注的焦点是印美民用核合作协议，经济议题相对被忽视了。但事实上美国工商界一些重量级人物也跟随布什访问了印度。美国目前是印度的最大贸易伙伴，布什访印期间两国的贸易官员还宣布提前实现双边贸易额翻一番的目标，即到2008年使双边贸易额达到500亿美元。美国市场对印度的新兴行业，如软件和外包服务的重要性是不言而喻的。美国一直是印度软件产品的最大出口市场，而且据市场研究公司Forrester Research预测，到2015年，美国将有340万个服务行业的工作机会流向海外，印度的服务业无疑将大受其利。 印度能从双边关系改善中获得的另一个好处是可以从世界银行获得更多的贷款，这是因为美国是这个国际金融机构的最大股东。前美国国防部副部长、现任世界银行行长沃尔福威茨去年访问印度时宣布在3年内将向该国提供90亿美元的贷款。 因此，我们也许应该在这种背景下来看待印度在伊朗核问题上的亲美立场，而不能仅仅将其视为印度支持美国的立场以换取美国帮助印度发展核能的一笔简单交易。 作为印度的最大邻居和一个有待开拓的庞大市场，中国对印度经济改革与发展的重要性同样不能忽视。1962年的边境冲突一度使双边关系跌入谷底。如今在务实外交的推动下双边关系显著改善，领导人的互访日益频繁。两国已宣布2006年为“中印友好年”。 对于想扩大出口和推动经济快速发展的印度来说，中国这个市场是不能忽视的。而且中印贸易增长速度快于美印贸易增长速度，因此中国有可能很快取代美国成为印度最大的贸易伙伴。与此同时，双方之间的相互投资也不断增加。中国的“硬件”企业和印度的“软件”企业相互到对方投资。 对于中印来说，能源合作是一个更重要的领域。中国和印度现在是世界上能源消费增长最快的国家，进口石油分别占各自能源需求的40%和70%。能源安全事关双方各自的经济发展前景。如果鹬蚌相争，只会对第三方有利。为了加强双边能源合作，印度石油部长艾亚尔今年1月对中国进行了为期3天的访问，其间双方签署了一系列能源谅解备忘录。此前双方石油公司已经进行过合作，在去年12月以各占50％的比例收购了加拿大一家石油公司所拥有的一个叙利亚油田的38％的股份。 独立后的印度对引进外资持消极态度，直到如今对外国资本的进入仍有诸多限制，外资的进入经常在印度引起激烈的争论甚至反对。这可能既有历史原因，也是出于现实的需要。“东印度公司恐惧症”还有待克服。回想起东印度公司从一家贸易公司变成殖民政府的过程，印度人有理由对外部世界保持警觉。就现实需要而言，这是为了保护国内企业。 印度对外资的排斥甚至还针对它的海外侨民。在这种情况之下，印度每年吸引的外资只有数十亿美元，而其侨胞的投资仅占其中的约10％。相比而言，中国2004年实际利用外资606亿美元，其中华侨和港澳投资者的投资额占60％，他们被誉为推动中国经济增长的“第二种力量”。如果说中国这艘航母是由双引擎推动的，印度这艘航母只有一个引擎，其速度自然相对慢些。 不过印度如今改变了态度，不仅在努力为外资的进入扫清障碍，而且张开双臂拥抱侨民。印度政府今年1月7日在海德拉巴市举行的第四届“海外印裔代表大会”上宣布授予16个发达国家的侨胞终身护照，总理辛格更是亲自授予两位美籍印度人终身护照。印度政府此举的意图是显而易见的，那就是为其侨胞提供便利，利用他们的资金、技术和管理经验为经济改革和发展服务。 当然，海外印度人的实力是毋庸置疑的。单就印度裔美国人来说，据美国相关机构统计，印度裔美国中等家庭的年平均收入是6万美元左右，远远高于38885美元这一全国平均水平。另据《2006全球经济展望》的统计数据，去年全球汇款超过2320亿美元，其中印度收到的最多，达217亿美元，是其当年实际利用外资额的几倍。海外印度人的资金、技术和管理经验无疑会加强印度经济发展的动力。 总而言之，就目前的情况来看，印度经济正在进入快车道。随着经济发展到一定阶段，其有碍经济加速发展的因素将会以更快的速度被克服。 当然，这样的预测都是基于印度当前的经济性因素。然而，经济发展从来都不是单纯的经济问题，一些非经济性因素时常会干扰其进程。恐怖袭击、教派冲突等问题都有可能在印度引发整体性的动荡，经济发展因此有可能减缓甚至停止。
印度经济:进入发展快车道 21世纪经济报道 2006-03-16 15:36:50
特约评论员 秦明阳 印度的内部改革和外交政策调整，为其经济腾飞提供了动力。就目前的情况来看，印度经济正在进入快车道。 近来有关印度经济发展前景的乐观预测不绝于耳。国际会计咨询公司普华永道公司不久前发表研究报告说，中国、印度、巴西、俄罗斯、印尼、墨西哥和土耳其这7个新兴经济体的经济总量到2005年将超过“七国集团”(G7)的。其中印度的经济发展速度将是最快的，从现在起到2050年的平均增长率为7.6％。 此前国际货币基金组织也预测说，印度经济几年内年增长率将达8%－10％。美国著名智库经济战略研究所的所长普雷斯托维茨在其《30亿新资本家：财富和实力向东方大转移》一书中也给出了类似的乐观预测，他说印度经济在未来一定时期内将维持7%－8％的增长率。 与此同时，印度官员也充满了信心。辛格总理去年底表示，印度经济增长率在2－3年内将达到10％。 其实考虑到印度经济自上世纪九十年代以来十几年的快速增长，再加上中国这个参照系，此类乐观的预测不能说是夸大其辞。印度在过去14年的平均增长率超过6％，其速度之高和持续时间之长仅次于中国。如果单从时间方面来比较，印度经济改革的1991－2005年可以说相当于中国的1978－1992年。1992年是中国经济改革的一个转折点，因为这一年邓小平发表南巡讲话，宣示中国的经济改革趋势不可逆转，而且中共十四大又确立了建立社会主义市场经济的改革目标。此后中国的改革开放和经济发展进入了快车道。历经14年改革和快速发展的印度也可以说正进入类似阶段。 当然，与其他经济体相比，印度无疑是后来者，在很多方面已经落后了。其落后的基础设施、官僚主义、对企业不利的劳动法、对外国投资的众多限制等常常为人们所诟病。但这些都是改革有待克服的问题，同时也说明了改革的必要性，而不能被视为改革失败的象征。尽管未来存在不确定性因素，但国际权威机构提供的预测和印度官员本身的自信都说明，印度经济当前正进入快车道，“印度式的经济增长率”已经成为历史。不仅内部出现了强劲的搏动，而且外部环境对其发展也有利。 借力：推进内部改革 印度现任总理辛格无疑是坚定的改革派，更有印度“经济改革之父”的美誉。1991年他担任财政部长时就致力于经济改革，到2004年担任总理时凭借手中更大的权力加快了经济改革的步伐。今年年初，他不顾其联盟政府中左翼伙伴的强烈反对和工会的大罢工推行机场管理私有化的举措，就很能说明他的改革意志。 尽管有坚定的改革决心，但辛格发起的改革注定要面对重重困难。这首先是因为他是一位弱势总理。他所在的国大党未能控制国会议席中的绝对多数，因此不得不跟其他政党结盟。在这种情况下，他必须进行折衷妥协，就改革措施取得联盟伙伴的支持，以防政府垮台。 更重要的是，印度的经济改革仍面临很多禁忌或雷区。辛格政府推行的机场管理私有化政策所激起的大罢工就很能说明私有化问题的敏感性。更准确地说，印度政府对国有企业的改革不是私有化，而是“去投资化”，而且“去投资化”的比例一般不会超过国有企业总资本的50％。尽管如此，仍会遭遇很大的阻力。印度改革面临的另一个棘手问题是劳动法改革。1947年颁布的《产业纠纷法案》规定，雇佣100名以上员工的企业在没有获得政府许可的情况下不能解雇任何人。但政府很少会批准公司解聘员工。这部缺乏灵活性的法案实际上对劳资双方都没好处，因为它促使印度公司选择资本密集型产业，即便有廉价的劳动力也不充分利用。尽管这部法案已经不合时宜，但各个政党顾忌它在政治上的敏感性而不愿触及。如何放宽诸多对外国资本进入的限制也是一个有待解决的问题。 不过尽管印度的改革开放进展缓慢，而且有可能遭遇重大挫折，但这并不妨碍印度经济仍以较快的速度增长。事实上，印度在过去14年里的改革动作并不大，但经济仍以超过6％的年增长率发展，这很大程度上得益于在印度现行体制之外出现了新的增长点。这证实了1979年诺贝尔经济学奖得主之一阿瑟·刘易斯的判断：“经济的变化并不完全产生于制度的变化。经济增长可能产生于资本形成的增加、新技术的应用或者不是源于制度变化的其他因素。”就印度来说，它是引进了新的技术。它虽然错过了制造业大发展的潮流，却在服务业大发展的趋势下抓住了机会。印度政府虽然在改革现行体制方面步调缓慢，却很少对新兴行业如信息技术、外包服务等进行干预。印度私营部门在这些行业有了大展身手的机会，并有不俗的表现。在此过程中，印度出现了一批在国际市场上叱咤风云的本土企业，如软件业巨头Infosys、Wipro等，令国际社会对印度刮目相看。 然而，如果我们只是关注印度新兴产业的产值、出口额和创造的就业机会等纯粹的经济指标，就未免会低估其作用。 在新兴产业中诞生的一批杰出企业家在推动印度经济发展、提高印度的国际知名度和声誉的同时也提高了自身的社会政治地位。印度独立后尼赫鲁那一代领导人所推行的“费边社会主义”虽然不主张消灭私营企业，但在国家政策上却向国有企业倾斜，厚此薄彼的倾向十分明显，私营企业及其业主相对受到轻视。不过如今这一批靠自己的聪明才智通过合法途径取得经济成就的明星级企业家已经获得崇高的社会政治地位，他们在国人眼中成了“民族英雄”。其中Infosys的创始人纳拉亚纳·穆尔蒂被印度人骄傲地誉为“印度的比尔·盖茨”。他们的社会政治地位得到了充分的认可。这一点对任何社会的经济发展都是很重要的，历史已经证明，在商人的社会和政治地位低贱的国家，其经济发展是有限的。刘易斯认为，商业地位在英国和西班牙殖民扩张时期的贵贱很大程度上可以解释它们后来的发展差异。 他们享有崇高社会地位的影响之一是刺激印度这个宗教氛围浓厚、盛行禁欲主义的国家的经济活动。正如刘易斯所说的那样，任何社会中最富有进取心的年青人总是会选择能为他们赢得最崇高社会地位的职业，而“只有在经济活动中有成就的组织者能获取最高声誉，他们才会把自己的心思转向经济活动”。他们所享有的社会地位会吸引更多的人创造财富，而不只是分享他人的成果。此时在印度的金融中心———孟买———的贫民窟中，也许正有一个少年梦想着成为下一个“印度的比尔·盖茨———纳拉亚纳·穆尔蒂”。 他们对印度经济发展和国际声誉提高的贡献也为他们赢得了更为宽松的环境。曾经无所不管的印度官僚机构很少干预这个既能推动国内经济发展又能提高该国国际声誉的新兴产业，更没有对私营部门实施有歧视性的政策和法律。从更积极的角度来看，他们作为社会的革新者，能够引导现行体制向更有利于经济发展的方向转变，促使制度性的障碍以更快的速度瓦解。经济的发展与制度的转变之间存在互动关系，经济发展必定引起制度的变革，而制度的变革又反过来强化有利于经济增长的力量。印度如果进入这个良性循环阶段，其经济就能以更快的速度发展。 拓路：改善外部环境 外交是内政的延续。自1991年印度启动经济改革以来，其外交政策相应进行了调整，明显倾向于为经济改革和发展服务。这种调整为其内部的改革和经济发展营造了比较有利的外在环境，其中最显著的成果体现在它与美国、中国及其海外侨胞的关系的改善。 印度与美国的关系在冷战期间处于一种不冷不热的状态，不过近年来出现稳步发展的态势。美国总统布什3月初对印度的访问将双边关系推向了一个新的高度，在印度和美国这两边都有人将其与尼克松访华相提并论。对于处在经济改革和发展的初步阶段的印度来说，与美国改善关系的好处是显而易见的，因为就目前来说，美国依然拥有世界最庞大的市场、最雄厚的资本和最先进的技术，而且还在国际货币基金组织和世界银行拥有最大的发言权。 布什在访印期间人们关注的焦点是印美民用核合作协议，经济议题相对被忽视了。但事实上美国工商界一些重量级人物也跟随布什访问了印度。美国目前是印度的最大贸易伙伴，布什访印期间两国的贸易官员还宣布提前实现双边贸易额翻一番的目标，即到2008年使双边贸易额达到500亿美元。美国市场对印度的新兴行业，如软件和外包服务的重要性是不言而喻的。美国一直是印度软件产品的最大出口市场，而且据市场研究公司Forrester Research预测，到2015年，美国将有340万个服务行业的工作机会流向海外，印度的服务业无疑将大受其利。 印度能从双边关系改善中获得的另一个好处是可以从世界银行获得更多的贷款，这是因为美国是这个国际金融机构的最大股东。前美国国防部副部长、现任世界银行行长沃尔福威茨去年访问印度时宣布在3年内将向该国提供90亿美元的贷款。 因此，我们也许应该在这种背景下来看待印度在伊朗核问题上的亲美立场，而不能仅仅将其视为印度支持美国的立场以换取美国帮助印度发展核能的一笔简单交易。 作为印度的最大邻居和一个有待开拓的庞大市场，中国对印度经济改革与发展的重要性同样不能忽视。1962年的边境冲突一度使双边关系跌入谷底。如今在务实外交的推动下双边关系显著改善，领导人的互访日益频繁。两国已宣布2006年为“中印友好年”。 对于想扩大出口和推动经济快速发展的印度来说，中国这个市场是不能忽视的。而且中印贸易增长速度快于美印贸易增长速度，因此中国有可能很快取代美国成为印度最大的贸易伙伴。与此同时，双方之间的相互投资也不断增加。中国的“硬件”企业和印度的“软件”企业相互到对方投资。 对于中印来说，能源合作是一个更重要的领域。中国和印度现在是世界上能源消费增长最快的国家，进口石油分别占各自能源需求的40%和70%。能源安全事关双方各自的经济发展前景。如果鹬蚌相争，只会对第三方有利。为了加强双边能源合作，印度石油部长艾亚尔今年1月对中国进行了为期3天的访问，其间双方签署了一系列能源谅解备忘录。此前双方石油公司已经进行过合作，在去年12月以各占50％的比例收购了加拿大一家石油公司所拥有的一个叙利亚油田的38％的股份。 独立后的印度对引进外资持消极态度，直到如今对外国资本的进入仍有诸多限制，外资的进入经常在印度引起激烈的争论甚至反对。这可能既有历史原因，也是出于现实的需要。“东印度公司恐惧症”还有待克服。回想起东印度公司从一家贸易公司变成殖民政府的过程，印度人有理由对外部世界保持警觉。就现实需要而言，这是为了保护国内企业。 印度对外资的排斥甚至还针对它的海外侨民。在这种情况之下，印度每年吸引的外资只有数十亿美元，而其侨胞的投资仅占其中的约10％。相比而言，中国2004年实际利用外资606亿美元，其中华侨和港澳投资者的投资额占60％，他们被誉为推动中国经济增长的“第二种力量”。如果说中国这艘航母是由双引擎推动的，印度这艘航母只有一个引擎，其速度自然相对慢些。 不过印度如今改变了态度，不仅在努力为外资的进入扫清障碍，而且张开双臂拥抱侨民。印度政府今年1月7日在海德拉巴市举行的第四届“海外印裔代表大会”上宣布授予16个发达国家的侨胞终身护照，总理辛格更是亲自授予两位美籍印度人终身护照。印度政府此举的意图是显而易见的，那就是为其侨胞提供便利，利用他们的资金、技术和管理经验为经济改革和发展服务。 当然，海外印度人的实力是毋庸置疑的。单就印度裔美国人来说，据美国相关机构统计，印度裔美国中等家庭的年平均收入是6万美元左右，远远高于38885美元这一全国平均水平。另据《2006全球经济展望》的统计数据，去年全球汇款超过2320亿美元，其中印度收到的最多，达217亿美元，是其当年实际利用外资额的几倍。海外印度人的资金、技术和管理经验无疑会加强印度经济发展的动力。 总而言之，就目前的情况来看，印度经济正在进入快车道。随着经济发展到一定阶段，其有碍经济加速发展的因素将会以更快的速度被克服。 当然，这样的预测都是基于印度当前的经济性因素。然而，经济发展从来都不是单纯的经济问题，一些非经济性因素时常会干扰其进程。恐怖袭击、教派冲突等问题都有可能在印度引发整体性的动荡，经济发展因此有可能减缓甚至停止。
星期三, 一月 11, 2006
U.S. senator calls on China to cut trade gap - International Business - MSNBC.com
U.S. senator calls on China to cut trade gap - International Business - MSNBC.com
MSNBC.com
U.S. senator calls on China to cut trade gap Montana's Backus warns of possible backlash if Beijing does not act
The Associated Press
Updated: 7:30 a.m. ET Jan. 10, 2006
BEIJING - A leading U.S. lawmaker warned Chinese officials Tuesday that Beijing is risking a protectionist backlash in Washington if it doesn't take steps to cut its $200 billion trade surplus with the United States.
Without Chinese action, "Washington may take measures to reduce the trade imbalance by reducing Chinese exports to the United States. And that is an outcome in neither party's interests," Sen. Max Baucus, a member of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, said in a speech to a group of business executives in Beijing.
Baucus said he met earlier with Commerce Minister Bo Xilai and other officials and warned them of rising economic anxiety in the United States and support for protectionist measures.
He didn't say what steps Beijing should take, but mentioned complaints about its currency controls and that it hasn't fully complied with market-opening commitments.
Baucus said the Chinese officials seemed receptive but did not make any specific commitments.
"I think they understood. There was no argument," he said. "The good news is that I didn't get a lot of pushback. I didn't get a lot of argument."
China's trade surplus with the United States in 2005 is forecast to top $200 billion, up nearly 25 percent from the surplus in 2004, which was the biggest on record.
Baucus, from Montana, is the senior Democrat on the Finance Committee in the Republican-controlled Senate.
He cited legislation proposed by Sen. Chuck Schumer, a fellow Democrat, that would raise tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing does more to allow its currency, the yuan, to rise in value against the dollar. China's trading partners say the state-set exchange rate for the yuan is too low, giving Chinese exporters an unfair price advantage.
"There's a very significant economic insecurity in the United States these days," Baucus told reporters after his speech to members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
Without Chinese action, he said, "I'm fearful that when, say, the Schumer amendment comes up, it might pass."
Baucus said he was due to meet later Tuesday with Premier Wen Jiabao, China's top economic official.
Baucus said Beijing could head off protectionist sentiment by making an unspecified "significant action" to show it "is doing something to address the issue."
"That would be a huge political statement and a very positive political statement," he said.
© 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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© 2006 MSNBC.com
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URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10786754/
MSNBC.com
U.S. senator calls on China to cut trade gap Montana's Backus warns of possible backlash if Beijing does not act
The Associated Press
Updated: 7:30 a.m. ET Jan. 10, 2006
BEIJING - A leading U.S. lawmaker warned Chinese officials Tuesday that Beijing is risking a protectionist backlash in Washington if it doesn't take steps to cut its $200 billion trade surplus with the United States.
Without Chinese action, "Washington may take measures to reduce the trade imbalance by reducing Chinese exports to the United States. And that is an outcome in neither party's interests," Sen. Max Baucus, a member of the powerful Senate Finance Committee, said in a speech to a group of business executives in Beijing.
Baucus said he met earlier with Commerce Minister Bo Xilai and other officials and warned them of rising economic anxiety in the United States and support for protectionist measures.
He didn't say what steps Beijing should take, but mentioned complaints about its currency controls and that it hasn't fully complied with market-opening commitments.
Baucus said the Chinese officials seemed receptive but did not make any specific commitments.
"I think they understood. There was no argument," he said. "The good news is that I didn't get a lot of pushback. I didn't get a lot of argument."
China's trade surplus with the United States in 2005 is forecast to top $200 billion, up nearly 25 percent from the surplus in 2004, which was the biggest on record.
Baucus, from Montana, is the senior Democrat on the Finance Committee in the Republican-controlled Senate.
He cited legislation proposed by Sen. Chuck Schumer, a fellow Democrat, that would raise tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing does more to allow its currency, the yuan, to rise in value against the dollar. China's trading partners say the state-set exchange rate for the yuan is too low, giving Chinese exporters an unfair price advantage.
"There's a very significant economic insecurity in the United States these days," Baucus told reporters after his speech to members of the American Chamber of Commerce in China.
Without Chinese action, he said, "I'm fearful that when, say, the Schumer amendment comes up, it might pass."
Baucus said he was due to meet later Tuesday with Premier Wen Jiabao, China's top economic official.
Baucus said Beijing could head off protectionist sentiment by making an unspecified "significant action" to show it "is doing something to address the issue."
"That would be a huge political statement and a very positive political statement," he said.
© 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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© 2006 MSNBC.com
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URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10786754/
星期二, 十一月 29, 2005
Indian Official: Gov't Must Open Economy - New York Times
November 28, 2005
Indian Official: Gov't Must Open Economy
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 9:30 a.m. ET
NEW DELHI (AP) -- The Indian government hopes to open the economy more to foreign competition despite opposition from powerful leftist allies, a senior government official said Monday.
The government plans to ease foreign investment rules and open new sectors to overseas capital, despite political opposition which forced the Cabinet earlier this month to delay a decision.
A panel of ministers has since been set up to hammer out a consensus on the proposals, which include simplifying procedures, raising caps on foreign equity participation in some sectors and opening electricity trading and mining activities to foreign investment.
''We do think, very shortly, we will make major announcements,'' Ajay Dua, secretary in the industrial policy department, Monday told the India Economic Summit, a gathering of global business leaders who are exploring business opportunities in India, one of the world's most rapidly expanding economies.
Dua's comments came a day after the Indian finance minister said the country must open up its economy more to accelerate its already rapid economic growth.
''We must exploit the single biggest advantage India has -- an educated and young work force that is growing,'' Finance Minister P. Chidamabaram told the summit that opened Sunday. ''We must open the doors to foreign direct investment.''
India's economy is currently growing at a 7 percent rate, but experts and officials said it could emulate China's success and expand even faster.
''The Indian economy should look to 8 percent and beyond,'' Chidambaram said. But to do so, India needs to make huge investments in infrastructure such as roads, ports and electricity generation, and he said a more liberal policy on foreign capital was the key.
Although India has increasingly allowed foreign direct investment since switching from a socialist-style economy in the early 1990s, many foreign companies still feel further reforms are necessary. There are limits to foreign equity participation in many sectors, and problems with red tape persist.
India has received $4.5 billion in foreign direct investment this year, a fraction of what economic rival China has drawn during the same period, Chidambaram said.
Delegates to the three-day summit, organized by the Geneva-based World Economic Forum, said they were optimistic India would change.
''I have been coming here. But I have never heard such optimism, and such positive noise about growth and development in India,'' said Martin Sorrell, group chief executive of the British-based advertising giant WPP.
Still, a large number of Indians remain poor, left out of the economic boom of the past decade and a half. About 400 million people, nearly 40 percent of India's 1 billion plus population, live on less than a dollar a day.
The summit was also discussing what should be done to make economic growth more inclusive to prevent a social and political backlash resulting from widening economic disparities.
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top
Indian Official: Gov't Must Open Economy
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 9:30 a.m. ET
NEW DELHI (AP) -- The Indian government hopes to open the economy more to foreign competition despite opposition from powerful leftist allies, a senior government official said Monday.
The government plans to ease foreign investment rules and open new sectors to overseas capital, despite political opposition which forced the Cabinet earlier this month to delay a decision.
A panel of ministers has since been set up to hammer out a consensus on the proposals, which include simplifying procedures, raising caps on foreign equity participation in some sectors and opening electricity trading and mining activities to foreign investment.
''We do think, very shortly, we will make major announcements,'' Ajay Dua, secretary in the industrial policy department, Monday told the India Economic Summit, a gathering of global business leaders who are exploring business opportunities in India, one of the world's most rapidly expanding economies.
Dua's comments came a day after the Indian finance minister said the country must open up its economy more to accelerate its already rapid economic growth.
''We must exploit the single biggest advantage India has -- an educated and young work force that is growing,'' Finance Minister P. Chidamabaram told the summit that opened Sunday. ''We must open the doors to foreign direct investment.''
India's economy is currently growing at a 7 percent rate, but experts and officials said it could emulate China's success and expand even faster.
''The Indian economy should look to 8 percent and beyond,'' Chidambaram said. But to do so, India needs to make huge investments in infrastructure such as roads, ports and electricity generation, and he said a more liberal policy on foreign capital was the key.
Although India has increasingly allowed foreign direct investment since switching from a socialist-style economy in the early 1990s, many foreign companies still feel further reforms are necessary. There are limits to foreign equity participation in many sectors, and problems with red tape persist.
India has received $4.5 billion in foreign direct investment this year, a fraction of what economic rival China has drawn during the same period, Chidambaram said.
Delegates to the three-day summit, organized by the Geneva-based World Economic Forum, said they were optimistic India would change.
''I have been coming here. But I have never heard such optimism, and such positive noise about growth and development in India,'' said Martin Sorrell, group chief executive of the British-based advertising giant WPP.
Still, a large number of Indians remain poor, left out of the economic boom of the past decade and a half. About 400 million people, nearly 40 percent of India's 1 billion plus population, live on less than a dollar a day.
The summit was also discussing what should be done to make economic growth more inclusive to prevent a social and political backlash resulting from widening economic disparities.
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top
New Straits Times - Malaysia News Online
http://www.nst.com.my/Current_News/NST/Saturday/National/20051126075721/Article/indexb_html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single Asean market
By Koh Lay Chin
A SINGLE market ripe with a multitude of choices and opportunities. That is what an integrated Asean will do for Malaysian businessmen who cannot wait to reap its benefits. As the end-goal of economic integration outlined in Asean’s Vision 2020, the Asean Economic Community (AEC) will see a European Union-style single market and production base where the region’s competitiveness can be better harnessed.
Malaysian businessmen are hailing Asean integration and the AEC as a wonderful concept that would allow a free flow of services, goods, investment, skilled labour and capital.
Most say the integration process was moving, but slowly, with some countries not opening up as fast as they should.
In terms of economic power, Asean’s potential is enormous, comprising a market of 500 million with an annual gross production of over RM1.9 trillion.
It is a region that is strategically positioned between the two global giants of India and China. The challenges the region faces, however, are also enormous.
Many bigger economies of the developing world are growing just as strongly, and businessmen talk about Asean losing its competitive edge if it sits back and watches.
Asean-Business Advisory Council chairman and corporate leader Datuk Syed Amin Aljeffri said integration would mean a host of obvious gains for local businessmen.
They include a wider market for products, greater choices for sourcing of raw materials and locating their production plants in areas to take the best advantage of economies of scale.
It could also see a streamlining of economic activities as many Asean companies seemed to produce the same thing and thus compete with each other, he said.
"The moment proper incentives are given and agreements reached as to which area will concentrate on what, everything will come into place. This means incentives have to be standardised, rules and regulations harmonised and logistics improved."
He said, however, that all this would come to nothing unless Asean was prepared to be like the European Union.
The realities of a common currency, which the giant grouping espouses, should be considered for the benefit of the region.
"It is not too far-fetched, and no reason why it cannot take place now. Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, after all, shared the same currency before," he said, citing the three countries’ monetary union in 1967.
Asean’s current priority is to integrate the 11 sectors aimed at strengthening its competitiveness, and facilitate and promote intra-Asean trade and investment flows.
The sectors are wood-based products, automotive, rubber-based products, fisheries, textiles and apparels, electronic goods, agro-based products, e-Asean, healthcare, air travel and tourism.
Asean is also working to achieve a free flow of services earlier than the original target of 2020, with 2015 being considered as a possible end date.
To do this, it has agreed to set clear targets and schedules of services liberalisation for each sector and each round as well as adopting the Asean Minus X formula so that countries which are ready can liberalise first and others join in later.
Syed Amin said while concepts like the common currency was a long-term goal, there had to be some short-term goals for Asean.
Small and medium entreprises have to be more involved.
There could also be some tweaking to immigration laws to allow for labour mobility, he said, as well as the recognition of the Asean business entity which would allow Asean companies to have certain advantages or be given preferences.
The stage for these issues to be addressed is the Asean Business and Investment Summit (Asean BIS2005) to be held in Kuala Lumpur from Dec 9 to 11.
© Copyright 2004 The New Straits Times Press (M) Berhad. All rights reserved.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single Asean market
By Koh Lay Chin
A SINGLE market ripe with a multitude of choices and opportunities. That is what an integrated Asean will do for Malaysian businessmen who cannot wait to reap its benefits. As the end-goal of economic integration outlined in Asean’s Vision 2020, the Asean Economic Community (AEC) will see a European Union-style single market and production base where the region’s competitiveness can be better harnessed.
Malaysian businessmen are hailing Asean integration and the AEC as a wonderful concept that would allow a free flow of services, goods, investment, skilled labour and capital.
Most say the integration process was moving, but slowly, with some countries not opening up as fast as they should.
In terms of economic power, Asean’s potential is enormous, comprising a market of 500 million with an annual gross production of over RM1.9 trillion.
It is a region that is strategically positioned between the two global giants of India and China. The challenges the region faces, however, are also enormous.
Many bigger economies of the developing world are growing just as strongly, and businessmen talk about Asean losing its competitive edge if it sits back and watches.
Asean-Business Advisory Council chairman and corporate leader Datuk Syed Amin Aljeffri said integration would mean a host of obvious gains for local businessmen.
They include a wider market for products, greater choices for sourcing of raw materials and locating their production plants in areas to take the best advantage of economies of scale.
It could also see a streamlining of economic activities as many Asean companies seemed to produce the same thing and thus compete with each other, he said.
"The moment proper incentives are given and agreements reached as to which area will concentrate on what, everything will come into place. This means incentives have to be standardised, rules and regulations harmonised and logistics improved."
He said, however, that all this would come to nothing unless Asean was prepared to be like the European Union.
The realities of a common currency, which the giant grouping espouses, should be considered for the benefit of the region.
"It is not too far-fetched, and no reason why it cannot take place now. Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, after all, shared the same currency before," he said, citing the three countries’ monetary union in 1967.
Asean’s current priority is to integrate the 11 sectors aimed at strengthening its competitiveness, and facilitate and promote intra-Asean trade and investment flows.
The sectors are wood-based products, automotive, rubber-based products, fisheries, textiles and apparels, electronic goods, agro-based products, e-Asean, healthcare, air travel and tourism.
Asean is also working to achieve a free flow of services earlier than the original target of 2020, with 2015 being considered as a possible end date.
To do this, it has agreed to set clear targets and schedules of services liberalisation for each sector and each round as well as adopting the Asean Minus X formula so that countries which are ready can liberalise first and others join in later.
Syed Amin said while concepts like the common currency was a long-term goal, there had to be some short-term goals for Asean.
Small and medium entreprises have to be more involved.
There could also be some tweaking to immigration laws to allow for labour mobility, he said, as well as the recognition of the Asean business entity which would allow Asean companies to have certain advantages or be given preferences.
The stage for these issues to be addressed is the Asean Business and Investment Summit (Asean BIS2005) to be held in Kuala Lumpur from Dec 9 to 11.
© Copyright 2004 The New Straits Times Press (M) Berhad. All rights reserved.
星期六, 十一月 19, 2005
Two - Nation Trade Talk of Town at Summit - New York Times
November 18, 2005
China and Chile Sign Free - Trade Agreement
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:00 a.m. ET
BUSAN, South Korea (AP) -- China and Chile signed a free-trade agreement Friday, the first between China and a Latin American country.
Chilean Foreign Minister Ignacio Walker and his Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing signed the pact on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Busan, South Korea. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chilean President Ricardo Lagos witnessed the signing.
No details of the agreement were immediately released, but it was quickly welcomed by business leaders. Chilean officials have said it is the first free-trade agreement between China and a Latin American country.
''The free-trade agreement is a historic step for free trade -- important for China, important for Chile, important for Latin America,'' Mauro Mazzacurati, the president of delivery company DHL's operation in Chile, told The Associated Press.
Earlier Friday, Lagos extolled the benefits of bilateral free-trade agreements in a speech to business executives at the APEC forum, which aims to achieve free trade between its 21 member economies by 2020.
Lagos said the ultimate goal should be a strong multilateral trading system based on the World Trade Organization.
Disputes over agriculture and other issues have soured hopes of advancing trade liberalization goals at the WTO's ministerial meeting in Hong Kong next month. Recent talks in Europe have failed to resolve the disputes.
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top
China and Chile Sign Free - Trade Agreement
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:00 a.m. ET
BUSAN, South Korea (AP) -- China and Chile signed a free-trade agreement Friday, the first between China and a Latin American country.
Chilean Foreign Minister Ignacio Walker and his Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing signed the pact on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Busan, South Korea. Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chilean President Ricardo Lagos witnessed the signing.
No details of the agreement were immediately released, but it was quickly welcomed by business leaders. Chilean officials have said it is the first free-trade agreement between China and a Latin American country.
''The free-trade agreement is a historic step for free trade -- important for China, important for Chile, important for Latin America,'' Mauro Mazzacurati, the president of delivery company DHL's operation in Chile, told The Associated Press.
Earlier Friday, Lagos extolled the benefits of bilateral free-trade agreements in a speech to business executives at the APEC forum, which aims to achieve free trade between its 21 member economies by 2020.
Lagos said the ultimate goal should be a strong multilateral trading system based on the World Trade Organization.
Disputes over agriculture and other issues have soured hopes of advancing trade liberalization goals at the WTO's ministerial meeting in Hong Kong next month. Recent talks in Europe have failed to resolve the disputes.
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press Home Privacy Policy Search Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top
星期五, 十一月 18, 2005
CNN.com - Asia's business-politics divide - Nov 14, 2005
CNN.com - Asia's business-politics divide - Nov 14, 2005Asia's business-politics divide
Despite differences, economic integration intensifies in Asia
BUSAN, South Korea (AP) -- Having outraged neighboring nations with a visit last month to a war memorial, Japan's leader shouldn't count on gushes of cordiality from some participants at a meeting of leaders from the Asia-Pacific region.
Although sideline meetings between leaders are standard fare at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi isn't expected to meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao at this week's summit in Busan, South Korea.
Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japanese war criminals along with the nation's 2.5 million war dead, are an intensely emotional issue for China, South Korea and other Asian nations that suffered atrocities before and during World War II by Japanese soldiers. Beijing has already canceled a planned visit by Japan's foreign minister.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said last week he'd be willing to meet Koizumi, reversing earlier comments by Roh's office that such a meeting wasn't in the works. The short session set for Friday is likely to include criticism of Koizumi's shrine visit.
South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon and his Japanese counterpart Taro Aso exchanged "frank opinions" on the shrine visits and other topics during brief talks Monday on the sidelines of the APEC meetings.
Some analysts say Asian nations have historically followed a merchant mentality where business interests override political differences -- and the business ties are blossoming at an explosive rate. Japan's trade with the 21 APEC member economies makes up nearly three-fourths of its global trade, comprising 68 percent of imports and 75 percent of exports.
Katsumi Nakamura, president of Dongfeng Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co.'s joint venture in China, said Koizumi's shrine visit hasn't affected the company. Nissan is planning to sell 410,000 vehicles this year in China, as Japanese car brands win popularity among China's growing middle class.
"Political problems will be solved in the political arena," Nakamura told reporters recently. "Chinese people are polite, and they aren't going to show any bad feelings."
The classic Asian case of working together while bickering over politics is China's relations with Taiwan. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has been pressing for reunification since their 1949 split, but that hasn't stopped booming business relations.
Despite their deep differences, top officials from China and Taiwan each take a seat at APEC's table. The 21-member group discusses trade, security and other issues -- but avoids politics.
Hideo Ohashi, economics professor at Tokyo's Senshu University, believes China is aware of possible economic costs if anti-Japanese sentiments erupt.
Demonstrations across China earlier this year against new Japanese history textbooks that critics say whitewash Japan's World War II atrocities were widely viewed as having curtailed new Japanese investments, Ohashi said.
"Even without APEC, the economic integration of East Asia has progressed rapidly in a natural way," he said, adding the organization should facilitate government measures to complement progress in business, such as streamlining customs and visa regulations. "Certainly, the region is undergoing a big change."
Like other Asian experts, Ohashi says Japan's image will improve dramatically if Koizumi stops going to the war shrine.
Koizumi's shrine visits -- five since taking office in 2001 -- were once believed key for their influence at the ballot box. Still, Koizumi remains one of the most popular Japanese prime ministers, and his Yasukuni visit is one of his least popular policies, drawing criticism even from some Japanese.
Critics say the shrine glorifies past militarism, with some suspicious the visits are a thinly veiled symbol of Japan's secret ambitions to assert itself more on the international stage.
Makoto Kobayashi, director of the Tangshan Municipal People's Government Japan Office, which encourages Japanese companies to invest in an area near Beijing, wants Koizumi to stop going to the shrine, although Kobayashi personally has never encountered anti-Japanese behavior.
"How can Koizumi say it's just a domestic issue? Japan caused suffering to the Chinese and Korean people. If you simply thought about their feelings, it's something you won't be saying," he said. "And it's not working as a plus for the Japanese people either."
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Find this article at:
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/11/14/apec.politics.ap/index.html
Despite differences, economic integration intensifies in Asia
BUSAN, South Korea (AP) -- Having outraged neighboring nations with a visit last month to a war memorial, Japan's leader shouldn't count on gushes of cordiality from some participants at a meeting of leaders from the Asia-Pacific region.
Although sideline meetings between leaders are standard fare at the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi isn't expected to meet with Chinese President Hu Jintao at this week's summit in Busan, South Korea.
Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japanese war criminals along with the nation's 2.5 million war dead, are an intensely emotional issue for China, South Korea and other Asian nations that suffered atrocities before and during World War II by Japanese soldiers. Beijing has already canceled a planned visit by Japan's foreign minister.
South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said last week he'd be willing to meet Koizumi, reversing earlier comments by Roh's office that such a meeting wasn't in the works. The short session set for Friday is likely to include criticism of Koizumi's shrine visit.
South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon and his Japanese counterpart Taro Aso exchanged "frank opinions" on the shrine visits and other topics during brief talks Monday on the sidelines of the APEC meetings.
Some analysts say Asian nations have historically followed a merchant mentality where business interests override political differences -- and the business ties are blossoming at an explosive rate. Japan's trade with the 21 APEC member economies makes up nearly three-fourths of its global trade, comprising 68 percent of imports and 75 percent of exports.
Katsumi Nakamura, president of Dongfeng Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co.'s joint venture in China, said Koizumi's shrine visit hasn't affected the company. Nissan is planning to sell 410,000 vehicles this year in China, as Japanese car brands win popularity among China's growing middle class.
"Political problems will be solved in the political arena," Nakamura told reporters recently. "Chinese people are polite, and they aren't going to show any bad feelings."
The classic Asian case of working together while bickering over politics is China's relations with Taiwan. China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has been pressing for reunification since their 1949 split, but that hasn't stopped booming business relations.
Despite their deep differences, top officials from China and Taiwan each take a seat at APEC's table. The 21-member group discusses trade, security and other issues -- but avoids politics.
Hideo Ohashi, economics professor at Tokyo's Senshu University, believes China is aware of possible economic costs if anti-Japanese sentiments erupt.
Demonstrations across China earlier this year against new Japanese history textbooks that critics say whitewash Japan's World War II atrocities were widely viewed as having curtailed new Japanese investments, Ohashi said.
"Even without APEC, the economic integration of East Asia has progressed rapidly in a natural way," he said, adding the organization should facilitate government measures to complement progress in business, such as streamlining customs and visa regulations. "Certainly, the region is undergoing a big change."
Like other Asian experts, Ohashi says Japan's image will improve dramatically if Koizumi stops going to the war shrine.
Koizumi's shrine visits -- five since taking office in 2001 -- were once believed key for their influence at the ballot box. Still, Koizumi remains one of the most popular Japanese prime ministers, and his Yasukuni visit is one of his least popular policies, drawing criticism even from some Japanese.
Critics say the shrine glorifies past militarism, with some suspicious the visits are a thinly veiled symbol of Japan's secret ambitions to assert itself more on the international stage.
Makoto Kobayashi, director of the Tangshan Municipal People's Government Japan Office, which encourages Japanese companies to invest in an area near Beijing, wants Koizumi to stop going to the shrine, although Kobayashi personally has never encountered anti-Japanese behavior.
"How can Koizumi say it's just a domestic issue? Japan caused suffering to the Chinese and Korean people. If you simply thought about their feelings, it's something you won't be saying," he said. "And it's not working as a plus for the Japanese people either."
Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Find this article at:
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/BUSINESS/11/14/apec.politics.ap/index.html
星期日, 七月 31, 2005
CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers - Yahoo! News
CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers - Yahoo! News
Back to Story - Help
CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
Sat Jul 30,11:07 PM ET
U.S. shoppers should get a price break on shirts and pants made in Central America. American farmers and manufacturers are hoping to gain new sales in the region. U.S. sugar growers, however, are fretting about increased competition now that Congress has passed and sent to the president a trade deal that eliminates barriers between the United States and Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.
Most analysts predict that the political fallout from the Central American Free Trade Agreement, which President Bush plans to sign on Tuesday, will outweigh the economic impact. They note that the six CAFTA countries have economies that are very small in comparison with the U.S. economy.
The debate over the pact was the most contentious free-trade fight in Congress in more than a decade.
The U.S. International Trade Commission, which did the most extensive study of the agreement, found that it will have a tiny but positive impact on the U.S. economy — a gain of 0.01 percent in output in an $11 trillion economy.
Overall price breaks for U.S. consumers will be small because 80 percent of goods from the six nations already come into the U.S. duty-free under federal programs to help poor nations.
Yet the effect on some industries will be significant.
The commission estimated that after full phase-in of the agreement, U.S. exports of textiles and clothing to the six countries will increase by $802.8 million. Machinery exports will rise by $400.6 million. Auto shipments will go up by $180.4 million. Sales of wheat and other grains will climb by $157.3 million.
Total U.S. exports to the CAFTA nations will rise by $2.7 billion, or 14.8 percent, according to the study.
The value of goods sent from those countries to the U.S. will jump by $3.1 billion for textile and clothing shipments, while shipments of processed sugar will increase by $113.2 million.
The total increase in imports will come to $2.8 billion at the time of full phase-in. The study estimated that imports in some categories will decline in future years.
"The biggest winners from the passage of CAFTA will be the people of Central America. This will solidify the tremendous gains they have made in economic and political reforms," said Dan Griswold, head of trade studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington.
In addition to promoting the pact on foreign policy grounds, the Bush administration and Republican leaders participated in a frenzy of dealmaking to win votes.
One deal meant passage of House legislation to make it easier to impose penalty tariffs on China in trade disputes.
Also, there were agreements sought by textile state lawmakers to ensure that U.S. plants now shipping yarn and fabric to Latin America, where it is made into finished clothing, will not lose out to competition from China and other low-cost suppliers.
Despite all the horse-trading, the legislation passed by only two votes, 217-215, on Thursday night after House leaders held the normal 15-minute vote open for an hour to allow more arm-twisting.
"Passing CAFTA required last-minute procedural stunts even after weeks of the president's personal attention ... months of GOP leadership threats and goodies and an army of corporate lobbyists," said Lori Wallach, head of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, a CAFTA opponent.
The administration did avert what would have been a damaging political loss for the president.
The legislation victory allowed the administration to push ahead with its agenda of liberalizing trade, including the greater goal of agreement in the World Trade Organization among 148 nations on a global trade deal.
Organized labor is searching for primary opponents to make political losers out of the 15 Democrats who defied warnings from their leadership to vote for the deal.
Some trade experts say the tight vote might convince Republicans that they need to make a more concerted effort to address Democrats' concerns about protecting U.S. workers from unfair competition from low-wage countries.
"The fact that CAFTA won but this method might not be workable in the future might force Republicans to broaden the base and change their methods," said I.M. Destler, a professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland.
___
On the Net:
U.S. International Trade Commission CAFTA report: http://www.usitc.gov/WAIS/pub3717.PDF
Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Copyright © 2005 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions or Comments
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Back to Story - Help
CAFTA Expected to Benefit U.S. Consumers By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
Sat Jul 30,11:07 PM ET
U.S. shoppers should get a price break on shirts and pants made in Central America. American farmers and manufacturers are hoping to gain new sales in the region. U.S. sugar growers, however, are fretting about increased competition now that Congress has passed and sent to the president a trade deal that eliminates barriers between the United States and Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua.
Most analysts predict that the political fallout from the Central American Free Trade Agreement, which President Bush plans to sign on Tuesday, will outweigh the economic impact. They note that the six CAFTA countries have economies that are very small in comparison with the U.S. economy.
The debate over the pact was the most contentious free-trade fight in Congress in more than a decade.
The U.S. International Trade Commission, which did the most extensive study of the agreement, found that it will have a tiny but positive impact on the U.S. economy — a gain of 0.01 percent in output in an $11 trillion economy.
Overall price breaks for U.S. consumers will be small because 80 percent of goods from the six nations already come into the U.S. duty-free under federal programs to help poor nations.
Yet the effect on some industries will be significant.
The commission estimated that after full phase-in of the agreement, U.S. exports of textiles and clothing to the six countries will increase by $802.8 million. Machinery exports will rise by $400.6 million. Auto shipments will go up by $180.4 million. Sales of wheat and other grains will climb by $157.3 million.
Total U.S. exports to the CAFTA nations will rise by $2.7 billion, or 14.8 percent, according to the study.
The value of goods sent from those countries to the U.S. will jump by $3.1 billion for textile and clothing shipments, while shipments of processed sugar will increase by $113.2 million.
The total increase in imports will come to $2.8 billion at the time of full phase-in. The study estimated that imports in some categories will decline in future years.
"The biggest winners from the passage of CAFTA will be the people of Central America. This will solidify the tremendous gains they have made in economic and political reforms," said Dan Griswold, head of trade studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington.
In addition to promoting the pact on foreign policy grounds, the Bush administration and Republican leaders participated in a frenzy of dealmaking to win votes.
One deal meant passage of House legislation to make it easier to impose penalty tariffs on China in trade disputes.
Also, there were agreements sought by textile state lawmakers to ensure that U.S. plants now shipping yarn and fabric to Latin America, where it is made into finished clothing, will not lose out to competition from China and other low-cost suppliers.
Despite all the horse-trading, the legislation passed by only two votes, 217-215, on Thursday night after House leaders held the normal 15-minute vote open for an hour to allow more arm-twisting.
"Passing CAFTA required last-minute procedural stunts even after weeks of the president's personal attention ... months of GOP leadership threats and goodies and an army of corporate lobbyists," said Lori Wallach, head of Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, a CAFTA opponent.
The administration did avert what would have been a damaging political loss for the president.
The legislation victory allowed the administration to push ahead with its agenda of liberalizing trade, including the greater goal of agreement in the World Trade Organization among 148 nations on a global trade deal.
Organized labor is searching for primary opponents to make political losers out of the 15 Democrats who defied warnings from their leadership to vote for the deal.
Some trade experts say the tight vote might convince Republicans that they need to make a more concerted effort to address Democrats' concerns about protecting U.S. workers from unfair competition from low-wage countries.
"The fact that CAFTA won but this method might not be workable in the future might force Republicans to broaden the base and change their methods," said I.M. Destler, a professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland.
___
On the Net:
U.S. International Trade Commission CAFTA report: http://www.usitc.gov/WAIS/pub3717.PDF
Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
Copyright © 2005 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Questions or Comments
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